Four blue blood programs teetering ahead of March Madness

Blue blood programs are popular bets come March Madness. But could several of the best-known programs and their national followings missing out on the big dance in 2023?

Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina and Michigan State have not had seasons up to their usual standards. Here is a look at where those blue blood programs stand weeks before Selection Sunday on March 12.

Kentucky (16-7)

The Wildcats stubbed their toe early in the SEC schedule, losing three of four conference games. Since then, they have rattled off six straight wins, calming Kentucky fans and moving the team to a 10-seed projection in ESPN’s Joe Lundari’s bracketology.

Kentucky ranks 32 in NET rating, though its has a disappointing 1-6 record against Quad 1 teams, with a win over Tennessee the signature victory. The Wildcats have a bad loss to a South Carolina team ranked 276 in NET.

John Calipari’s team will have the chance to add more Quad 1 wins with games against Arkansas, Mississippi State and Tennessee left. Only the Volunteers are ranked, so it should be fairly easy for Kentucky to add more quality wins. 

Outcome: Likely to get in.

Duke (17-7)

In the first year post-Mike Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils find themselves with more losses than usual. Duke ranks 29 in NET rating, but the Blue Devils started the season seventh in the preseason Associated Press poll.

The good news is that Duke has no bad losses, with a 14-0 record versus Quad 2, 3 and 4 teams. The team has wins over Xavier, Iowa and Miami in Quad 1 and a 3-7 record overall against top teams.

The Blue Devils have games left against Virginia, North Carolina State and North Carolina to close the regular season. CBS’ Jerry Palm projects Duke as a sixth seed. 

Outcome: In the tournament, barring a catastrophic losing streak.

North Carolina (15-8)

Last season's NCAA runner-up is on the bubble. The Tar Heels had a four-game losing streak early in the season (Iowa State, Alabama, Indiana and Virginia Tech), though the opponents are all solid.

North Carolina ranks 44 in NET ranking, with only a win over Ohio State to hang its hat on. The Tar Heels have a 1-7 record against Quad 1 teams.

In February, North Carolina has games against ranked opponents Miami, North Carolina State and Virginia. The Tar Heels probably must win at least two to move off the bubble. Lunardi has them as a ninth seed in the tournament. 

Outcome: On the bubble, with a win in the ACC Tournament likely getting them in.

Michigan State (14-9)

Spartans fans are nervous about their chances to make the NCAA Tournament. The team sits in the middle of the muddy Big Ten standings, but Michigan State has gone 2-5 in its past seven conference games.

The good news is the team has Quad 1 wins over Rutgers, Kentucky and Penn State. It also has a bad loss by 18 to a poor Notre Dame team. The Spartans have a 45 NET ranking that puts them squarely on the bubble.

Michigan State only has one game against a ranked opponent (Indiana) but has five Quad 1 opponents left. 

Outcome: Probably needs a decent Big Ten Tournament run to go dancing barring a near-perfect finish to the regular season.