March Madness: NCAA Tournament 'Beat the Line' for the Sweet 16

We had a ton of success betting spreads and totals early in the week throughout the NFL season, and we're looking to do the same for the NCAA Tournament. Spreads and totals for the Sweet 16 are already available everywhere, so let's take a look at two bets we believe will give us closing line value before tip-off. 

UConn Huskies vs. San Diego State Aztecs

In a rematch of the 2023 national title game, we don't see this one playing out much differently. UConn is on another level right now, dismantling Stetson and Northwestern with minimal effort to reach the Sweet 16. The Huskies are the most complete team in the country, and we don't see the Aztecs making enough shots to keep up.

San Diego State ranks 284th in the country in three-point percentage, 206th in effective shooting percentage and 123rd in points per game. This is a solid team, but wins over UAB and Yale can't prepare the Aztecs for the juggernaut on deck. UConn went 6-0 against the spread on its way to a national championship last year, and it's trending that way again.

The bet to make: UConn -10.5 (-110 FanDuel)

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

We're backing a No. 1 seed with our first bet, but we're fading one with our next selection.

Gonzaga is humming offensively to begin the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs scored 86 points against McNeese State and 89 points against Kansas, shooting better than 51 percent from the field in both games. They've also drained 18 of their 36 three-point attempts (50 percent) through two rounds.

On the other side of the court, the Zags may just have the antidote for the poison that is Zach Edey. Edey can smother teams inside with his size, but Gonzaga big man Graham Ike will be up for the challenge. Behind Ike, the Bulldogs rank 10th in the country in opponent two-point percentage. They also do a good job of playing defense without fouling, which will be crucial against the player who draws the most fouls per game in the country. 

The bet to make: Gonzaga +5.5 (-110 FD)