NCAA Tournament 'Beat the Line' plays for the Round of 64

We had a successful NFL season picking off spreads and totals early in the week and watching the line move in our favor by Sunday, so let's employ the same strategy for the NCAA Tournament. Lines for the Round of 64 are already available everywhere, so let's target a few early spreads we think will give us closing line value before tip. 

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Morehead State Eagles

Beware of the hot, popular team in March. 

Illinois ran through the Big Ten Tournament and won the conference title while averaging 89.3 points per game, but don't let that distract you from what this team has been all year. The Illini rank seventh in the country in offensive efficiency but 123rd in defensive efficiency. Teams with that statistical profile are always red flags in March. 

Illinois wants to shoot a ton, push the pace and let its athletes run in transition, but Morehead State is the complete opposite. The Eagles rank 335th in the country in KenPom's adjusted tempo, so they're going to muck this game up and force the Illini to play in the half-court. If Morehead State can protect the ball and play at its pace, the Ohio Valley Conference champions could give Illinois a scare. 

The bet to make: Morehead State +12.5 (-110 Caesars)

Clemson Tigers vs. New Mexico Lobos

If you're looking for a first-round upset pick, look no further than the 6-11 matchup in the West Region. This is where sports bettors can gain an advantage over the casual college basketball fans in their bracket pool. 

New Mexico may be a worse seed than Clemson, but it's the better team in the betting market and the advanced metrics. That's why the Lobos are short favorites against the Tigers. New Mexico is ranked 23rd in KenPom, and it's one of just 13 teams in the country that ranks 41st or better in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. make up a deadly guard duo that can make a Cinderella run in this tournament, and it starts in the first round against an unimpressive Clemson team that went 11-9 in the mediocre ACC.

The bet to make: New Mexico moneyline (-115 FanDuel)