NCAAB Betting Market Watch: 3 teams to back, and 3 to avoid
The picks were solid over the weekend at 3-2 and there will be more to come but today I am taking the long view. We are about a couple of months from the NCAA Tournament and we have been able to see all the top teams in a variety of situations, for better or worse. It is too early to say we are going to have a wild NCAAs but if the last week, with so many top teams losing, was any indicator, there is a lot of value in a lot of places.
Future Bets to Make Right Now
Purdue +850
I know they lost recently at Nebraska (shocker) but the Boilermakers have looked so good most of this season. If you want to hold last year's stunning upset against them, I get it, but if you do you are missing out on a good price right now that is only going to drop. Big man Zach Edey is the most unstoppable force in the college game right now, whatever his NBA prospects are. If you are looking for value Purdue is hard to beat.
UConn +1200
The Huskies just rose to the top of the polls this week. They have done so with big man Donovan Clingan out too, showing some good depth. If you want to fade the Huskies just because they won it all last season (and few teams repeat), do so at your own risk. The Huskies are third in offensive efficiency and once Clingan is back you have to think their defensive efficiency will rise too. They are projected to take only two more losses making a No. 1 seed very likely.
Kansas +1800
Kansas is yet another team that has held the top spot in the polls for part of this season. This group has wins over Kentucky and UConn already so you know they can match up with good teams. They might take a few more losses before the season is done because the Big 12 is the best basketball league in America, but timing up their low point (or high point in terms of value) is tough. It might be now. This is a very veteran group at the top of the roster and we know the coach (Bill Self) knows how to pull the strings.
Future Bets to Avoid
Gonzaga +4500
Gonzaga is tied for the longest streak of consecutive NCAA tournament appearances. However, right now they are trending to needing the auto-bid from our of the West Coast Conference just to make the big dance. This is not a bad team, far from it, but they are not clubbing opponents in and out of the league the way they have for the last 20+ years. You can't make a future wager right now on a team that might not even be in the field. Or at least I wouldn't. Plus even if they do get in, You will still get pretty good payouts based on the season to date. No reason to rush here.
Michigan State +5000
MSU is in a similar spot as Gonzaga. They have a long streak of consecutive trips to the NCAAs and it is looking like the only path forward is the auto-bid from the Big Ten. That is a much tougher road than the Zags though. I was among those that thought this year's team would be tough to beat thanks to a veteran backcourt but they already have seven losses, and more time to get exposed than prove they are worthy. Making it in this season is hard to see. Let alone doing damage when they get there.
Marquette +2200
The Golden Eagles were a preseason darling. It made sense too, they had experience and guard Tyler Kolek was a legit Player of the Year candidate. Unlike the teams above, they do not appear in danger of missing the NCAAs altogether, but it is obvious they have not found their top gear and they have suffered a recent injury that makes their outlook a little less rosy. I like the coach (Shaka Smart) but there is nothing saying sleeper about this team right now. You might lose some value going forward but they do not look likely to explode.
More must-reads: