NCAAB Betting Market Watch: Old Time ACC?
Last year North Carolina was a disaster. They entered the season ranked No. 1 in the nation and did not even participate in the NCAA Tournament. This season they have looked night and day better, for several reasons, and are currently leading the ACC with a perfect 9-0 record.
As a result, they are -650 right now to win the ACC regular-season crown. That is not surprising given they are currently two losses up on second-place Duke. The Blue Devils still play North Carolina twice though, including at Chapel Hill this weekend, so now is the time to think about whether there is any real value in the ACC markets going forward. (Florida State is next at +3000.)
Duke is currently +450 to win the ACC (which is a very strong payoff, especially at this stage given you are not tying up your funds for very long). They are a very good team, with some great pro prospects, but their losses leave you scratching your head. They have even lost twice at Cameron Indoor Stadium this season, something that pretty much never happens to the Blue Devils.
The question is whether this team is good enough to walk into the Dean Smith Center and get a win this weekend? If they are, anything is possible in the ACC for Duke, who just beat Virginia Tech last night on the road (although it is not like they dominated). Duke is just 10-10 ATS for the season.
Right now I am not seeing a ton of value with either team, really. At -650 there is not much value with the Tar Heels. You don't want to pay that price, although it will only get even more exorbitant with a win this weekend (and rightfully so).
As for Duke, I am not sure I trust them to win on the road in a big spot and a loss this weekend puts them three games back of UNC with just 10 games to go. That is a pretty insurmountable lead even though this is hardly a banner year for the ACC (Louisville, ugh!).
If I were playing it right now I would look to Moneyline parlay the home teams when these programs meet this season. That means taking the Tar Heels this weekend and then taking those winnings and backing Duke at home in the season finale (although do a vibes check first to make sure they are into it — they should be because even if it is meaningless this is the best rivalry in college hoops).
You probably can't make that wager directly with your sportsbook right now, although some books are getting better and better with progressive parlays.
My quick math is that this combo of games can net you something in the range of payoff of +110 to +120 for the two wagers. Not as big as that Duke payoff to take the ACC but much less risky to go with a couple of home favorites. With RJ Davis having such a strong season I am just not seeing how Duke flips things this weekend and gets that win.
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