NCAAB futures: Five best looks for March Madness

A new year is here, and with that, the college basketball season heats up as conference play begins. With only two months of action before the 2024 NCAA Tournament commences, here is a look at five of the best bets to cut down the net on Apr. 8 in Phoenix.

Odds provided by Action Network as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2023.

Purdue (+850)

The Boilermakers are the favorite for a reason. Reigning Naismith College Player of the Year Zach Edey is well on his way to becoming the first player since Ralph Sampson (1981-83) to earn consecutive POY honors and just the third overall (Bill Walton, 1972-74). Sophomore guards Fletcher Lover and Braden Smith are improved scorers and dangerous from beyond the arc. Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones, who is averaging 10.8 points per game, gives Purdue a valuable fourth scoring option. Last year, the Boilermakers became only the second 1-seed in tournament history to lose to a 16-seed, and like Virginia before them, they can right that wrong with a national title.

Arizona (+1000)

Can the Wildcats cut down the nets in their home state? They certainly have all the pieces. Arizona has a veteran core led by four seniors, including transfer Caleb Love, Swedish guard Pelle Larsson, forward Keshad Johnson and center Oumar Ballo. Per data from Evan Miyakawa, the Wildcats have the third-fastest tempo and are tied for the second-most "kill shots," or 10-0 runs, in the country. Ahead of last year's tournament, Miyakawa noted, "A team with at least one 10-0 run wins 71 percent of the time," and "A team with more kill shots than the opponent wins 81 percent of the time."

Houston (+1200)

Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cougars are the team to beat. BPI gives Houston a 48.4 percent chance of reaching that championship game and a 37.6 percent chance of winning the NCAA Tournament. Once again, head coach Kelvin Sampson has the Cougs playing elite defense, led by senior guard Jamal Shead, who is the top-ranked defensive player in the country, according to Miyakawa. Fellow senior guard LJ Cryer (16.9 points per game) and sophomore Emanuel Sharp (13.8 points per game) give Houston a solid 1-2 scoring punch. But it's on defense where the Cougars shine. They have the best defensive rating in the country (76.3) and are first in points allowed (49.4 points per game).

Duke (+2500)

The Blue Devils have won four in a row, including against No. 17 Baylor, by an average of 22.5 points after a 5-3 start. The preseason No. 2 team in the country has received significant contributions from sophomore Tyrese Proctor and freshmen Caleb Foster and Jared McCain, who has been on a tear during the team's current win streak, averaging 19.8 points per game while shooting 50 percent from deep. But Duke will only go as far as its two stars, sophomore center Kyle Filpowski and senior guard Jeremy Roach, take it. Miyakawa ranks Filipowski, who is averaging 18 points and 8.8 rebounds as the fifth-best player in the country, while Roach is battle-tested; his experience should pay dividends for Duke in March.

Alabama (+3500)

Want to back a team that's relatively a long shot? The Tide should top the list, despite their 8-5 record. Per ESPN's BPI, Alabama has the country's best offense and ranks fifth overall. ESPN also gives Bama the fifth-best odds of winning the tournament at 4.3 percent. Miyakawa's data shows only Houston, Arizona and Miami (FL) have more "kill shots" this season. 

Senior guard Mark Sears leads the team with 19.3 points per game on 53.6 percent shooting and the Tide also have excellent front-court depth with four players at 6-foot-10 or taller. Alabama's biggest strength, though, is its three-point shooting. The Tide are 39 percent from deep and have the fifth-most three-point makes in the country (149).