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ESPN's Computer Model Predicts Winner Of The Final Four

Originally posted on The Spun | By Matt Hladik | Last updated Mar 31, 2025 4:17 PM ET

The 2025 men's Final Four is just days away from tipping off in San Antonio.

For just the second time ever, all four No. 1 seeds reached the final weekend of the Big Dance. The last time that happened was 2008, when the Final Four, ironically, was also in San Antonio. Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston will make the trip to the Alamodome after laying waste to their respective regions over the last two weeks.

Auburn defeated Michigan State on Sunday to earn its place in the field, while Houston took down Tennessee. On Saturday night, Duke controlled Alabama from start to finish while Florida rallied late to beat Texas Tech.

After the Elite Eight, ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) updated its Final Four predictions. If you're unfamiliar, the BPI is defined as "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward."

NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - MARCH 27: Cooper Flagg #2 of the Duke Blue Devils reacts against the Arizona Wildcats in the East Regional Sweet Sixteen round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Prudential Center on March 27, 2025 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)Patrick Smith/Getty Images

One of the metrics the computer measures is each team's chances of reaching the title game. Auburn has the best chance, at 57.9%, followed by Duke at 53.9%.

Houston is next at 46.1% odds, with Florida in fourth at 42.1%. Duke, meanwhile, still has the best odds for winning the championship, with Houston second-best. Auburn and Florida are third and fourth.

To sum all that up, the BPI is projecting Auburn and Duke to win on Saturday and face off on Monday night in a rematch of their early-season matchup, with Duke once again winning and cutting down the nets.

Duke won their first meeting with Auburn 84-78 at Cameron Indoor Stadium back on Dec. 4. Superstar Cooper Flagg scored 22 points while fellow freshman Isaiah Evans added 18 off the bench.

DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA - DECEMBER 4: Cooper Flagg #2 of the Duke Blue Devils puts up a shot against Chaney Johnson #31 of the Auburn Tigers at Cameron Indoor Stadium on December 4, 2024 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)Lance King/Getty Images

Of course, Auburn is waiting to see how healthy star power forward Johni Broome will be after he injured his right arm on Sunday. If Broome is limited on Saturday, it could be the break Florida needs.

Auburn and Florida will get underway at 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday followed by Duke and Houston at approximately 8:49 p.m. ET.

Both games are on CBS.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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