New Mexico vs. Michigan State: Current line, win probability, final score prediction for NCAA Tournament showdown

No. 2-seed Michigan State will take on No. 10-seed New Mexico in the Round of 32 on Sunday. The Spartans are looking to make their second Sweet 16 in three seasons with a victory.

Michigan State defeated No. 15-seed Bryant 87-62 in the first round after outscoring the Bulldogs 54-34 in the second half. Meanwhile, New Mexico upset No. 7-seed Marquette 75-66 in a game which saw the Lobos lead for the majority ofthe matchup.

Ahead of tip-off, the odds, final score prediction and more have been updated heading into Sunday’s Round of 32 game in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s everything you need to know.

Odds for New Mexico vs. Michigan State

Sunday’s Round of 32 game, Michigan State (-320) is a 7.5-point favorite over New Mexico (+255) in Cleveland, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

The over/under total is set at 148.5 points.

Final score predictions

BPI Predicted winner: Michigan State
BPI Predicted point differential: 6.7
BPI Win probability (for Spartans): 75.2%
BPI Matchup Quality: 83.3

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. BPI agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 6.7 points in the Spartans’ favor. It also gives Michigan State a 75.2 percent chance to win the game over the Lobos.

KenPom Predicted final score: Michigan State 77, New Mexico 69
KenPom Win probability (for Spartans): 76%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Michigan State and New Mexico, KenPom agrees agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Lobos to lose.

How to watch New Mexico vs. Michigan State

Time: 8:40 p.m. ET – Sunday, March 23
Channel: TNT, Fubo TV (Streaming)
Location: Rocket Arena – Cleveland, OH

This will be the third meeting all-time between the two programs, with both meetings coming in 1970 and 1985, respectively. Michigan State is 2-0 in those matchups.

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