Earlier this week, Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier dismissed EDGE Brenton Cox Jr. from the team. In Florida's most recent game against Georgia, Cox threw a punch in the end zone after he was horse-collared on a Bulldogs touchdown run. Coach Napier said the punch was not the sole reason for the dismissal.
Cox responded with a classy, well-written statement that he released on Twitter. In the statement, he announced that he would declare for the 2023 NFL Draft. While other articles have opined what Cox's departure means for the Gators, this piece looks at Cox's dismissal through the lens of a draft analyst.
At the bottom: Cox is still a Top 50 talent, but the off-the-field questions might limit the number of teams that will be interested in selecting him. Teams with strong cultures and stable locker rooms—the Steelers come to mind—will probably keep Cox on their board. If Cox manages to put the distractions behind him, he could be a starter at the next level.
To be sure, this dismissal is not Cox's first. As a freshman at Georgia in 2018, he was decent in a limited time. But before the 2019 season got underway, the Bulldogs dismissed Cox from the program after he was arrested for possession of marijuana and reportedly clashed with coaches. After sitting out the 2019 season due to the NCAA's transfer rules, Cox joined the Gators and became one of the best defenders in the SEC.
In 2020, Cox burst onto the scene for Florida with 42 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks. He boosted the TFL and sack totals in 2021 with 41 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, and 8.0 sacks. This year, he was off to a hot start, having already racked up 35 tackles, 8.0 TFLs, and 2.0 sacks. Cox had even earned SEC Co-Defensive Lineman of the Week for a stellar Week One performance against Utah.
Past the numbers, Cox has all of the football skills necessary to succeed in the NFL. To be sure, he is a bit of a tweener: the former Gator is listed at 6-foot-3, 252 pounds, so his best fit might be as a 3-4 outside linebacker. But wherever he plays, Cox exhibits impressive play recognition skills and rarely gets caught out of position. He boasts an impressive repertoire of pass-rush moves and explodes off the ball. He has not played as well this season as he did last year, but he has shown enough over the course of his collegiate career to demonstrate that he is well-equipped to make an impact at the next level.
Here's the problem: The 2023 NFL Draft class is historically good at EDGE. Thus, players like Cox (and, unfortunately, Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith, who is done for the season with a torn pectoral muscle) have little to no margin for error. The first round could see something like seven EDGE rushers get picked, including Alabama's Will Anderson Jr., Clemson's Myles Murphy, Georgia's Nolan Smith, Notre Dame's Isaiah Foskey, Army's Andre Carter II, Kansas State's Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and LSU's B.J. Ojulari. From there, players like Ohio State's Zach Harrison, Florida State's Jared Verse, Iowa State's Will McDonald IV, Clemson's K.J. Henry, Michigan's Mike Morris, LSU's Ali Gaye, Auburn's Derick Hall, Pittsburgh's Habakkuk Baldonado, and others look like potential Day Two selections.
Cox is undoubtedly as talented as anyone in that second group, and on his best days he can go snap-for-snap with the potential first-rounders. But when teams have as many options at the position as NFL clubs will have at EDGE in the 2023 NFL Draft, they might choose to minimize risk and take a player of comparable ability with less red flags. It remains to be seen whether teams shy away from Cox based on this dismissal and his dismissal from Georgia.
In the end, Cox's odds of getting selected on Day One of the 2023 NFL Draft were not terribly high to begin with, but his odds of hearing his name called on Day Two took a significant hit this week. Cox should still get drafted—he's too talented not to. The question is where, and his recent dismissal from the Gators could knock him back to somewhere in the middle-to-late rounds.
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