We've entered the heart of 2024 NFL Draft season. The Senior Bowl and NFL Combine are both behind us. NFL mock draft season is in full swing. But how much do mock draft trends really matter? You might be surprised to learn that once we get past the NFL Combine enough real information starts circulating that NFL mock draft data begins to get super predictive.
In fact, in recent years just by pooling the "wisdom of the crowd" together from all mock drafts available we can accurately predict 85% or more of the players who will be selected through the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. Knowing this to be true, what can we learn from the last 100 mock drafts that have been published over the last three weeks?
Top 120 2024 NFL Draft Prospects via Mock Draft Trends
First off, I scraped together data from over 100 mock drafts dating from the week following the Super Bowl up through yesterday to help find current "consensus" rankings for top prospects and here's what I found. The image below shows where the Top 120 prospects have been going in recent mock drafts:
Some obvious names found themselves at the top. Caleb Williams, QB USC is the no-brainer first overall pick. After that it seems the other two quarterbacks and Marvin Harrison Jr. are near locks to go top five.
After we get beyond the top few names there were so many surprising trends I found when digging through the "risers" and "fallers" in recent weeks. If you would like a short synopsis by position, I put together a thread on X (Twitter) breaking down some key names in the post below, but I'll also break down the absolute biggest risers and fallers here now too.
Biggest Risers According to Latest Mock Draft Trends
After running a 4.38-second forty-yard dash and posting a 98th percentile Burst Score on his jumps Jaylen Wright, RB Tennessee quickly saw a pop this past week up mock draft boards. For the first time this NFL Draft cycle he is now a consensus day two prospect. He had been hovering in the early day three range, but it seems he could be a fringe round two projection as early as next week!
Theo Johnson, TE Penn State tested like Jimmy Graham at the NFL Combine and has quickly risen from a round five prospect to round three. Jordan Reid of ESPN actually had him getting selected round two by the Bengals in his mock draft this week. He's trending up so quickly he might end up being the second tight end off the board in April.
Xavier Worthy's record-setting 4.21-second forty time has him quickly bouncing back up into round one of NFL mock drafts everywhere, but he isn't the only receiver rising. His Texas teammate Adonai Mitchell was already trending towards first round capital, but he leaped up this week after posting a 99th percentile A to Z Sports Athletic Composite Score. Ricky Pearsall (Florida) and Jermaine Burton (Alabama) have also risen over a full round in recent weeks.
Darius Robinson, DL Missouri has been constantly rising for weeks after his dominant Senior Bowl performance. Robinson went from late round three projection to a consensus late first round pick.
Fellow defensive line prospect Braden Fiske (Florida State) is probably the fastest rising prospect in the entire 2024 NFL Draft though. His 4.78-second forty time at 292 pounds in combination with his incredible Senior Bowl and NFL Combine on-field performances have him soaring up mock draft boards. He launched himself from round five consideration to round two in just a few short weeks.
If your favorite NFL team needs a safety, Jaden Hicks (Washington State), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Texas Tech), and Sione Vaki (Utah) all have inserted their names firmly into the round three conversation after largely being afterthoughts for months. Calen Bullock (USC) also saw a slight bump up this week too. There may not be an elite safety this year, but the depth is looking surprisingly good now!
Biggest Fallers According to Latest Mock Draft Trends
Kalen King, CB Penn State has fallen down draft boards faster than any prospect in recent memory. For over a year King had consistently been going inside round one of mock drafts. But after getting exposed at the Senior Bowl and posting a 13th percentile Speed Score at the NFL Combine he's now barely projected to go inside the Top 120 picks.
Leonard Taylor (Miami) and Maason Smith (LSU) are two defensive line prospects who have been steadily falling for a couple months. Both were considered potential first round picks late last fall. Now, after lackluster showings at the NFL Combine, they're both plummeting so quickly they may not be inside the Top 120 at all soon.
Keon Coleman, WR Florida State went from consensus WR2 last fall to outside round one of almost every single mock draft this week. His 4.61-second forty-yard dash time doesn't look great, but when adjusting for his size it actually gave him a 42nd percentile Speed Score. Not absolutely terrible. There are just so many other good wide receivers in this class that his stock is suffering for it.
Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE Texas "only" ran a 4.69-second forty at 245 pounds, so his stock took a dip this past week. He's still the TE2 in the class (for the moment), but with several other tight ends rising he may slip to round three now despite being considered a fringe round one prospect for months.
The Miami safety duo of Kamren Kinchens and James Williams have both been falling for weeks now, but it's even worse now. Williams fell completely out of the Top 120 after being a fringe second round projection a couple months ago. Kinchens is trending towards round three after being considered a fringe first round prospect in January. Both tested poorly at the NFL Combine, which didn't help.
Be looking for more breakdowns on NFL Draft trends in the coming weeks here at A to Z Sports! Feel free to follow me on X at @FF_TravisM for plenty of NFL Draft and College Football coverage year round. And if you haven't already, check out the latest "Winners & Losers" video from the NFL Combine below in the A to Z Film Room.
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