College Football Playoff rankings: Calm before the storm

Well, here we are. Less than a week away from the four playoff teams announced yet there seems to be so many questions left unanswered. The first two College Football Playoffs were relatively simple when the season ended – we had all conference champions and minimal complaints. This year, we could have a conference not send its champion to the playoff but send a team that didn't even win its division instead. We have been debating the worth of a team like Washington against two-loss teams in other leagues.

It seems that Alabama and Ohio State are locked in. So we essentially have five teams still fighting for two spots and three of those teams hail from the Big Ten. Let's look at what's happening:

#1: Alabama
The Crimson Tide should definitely feel that even if they lose to Florida in the SEC championship game on Saturday that they still should make the College Football Playoff. They are the lone undefeated team remaining that matters in the rankings and having a loss to Florida at a neutral site isn't a bad loss compared to the rest of the teams in the running. Still, they'd love to win another conference title.

#2: Ohio State
It seems that Ohio State also has a lock on a playoff spot. They are out of games to play so they cannot lose a game. There also aren't three teams ranked behind them that could wow the committee that much that they would all leap over the Buckeyes and knock them out of the playoff.

#3: Clemson
Clemson beats Virginia Tech and they are back in the playoff. Lose? Well that's a dicey situation. A loss to Virginia Tech would be the worst loss any of the teams who realistically have a shot at a playoff spot could have. Someone has to win the Wisconsin-Penn State game and they would most likely leap over Clemson. A team like Michigan could have a case that their losses (and wins) are better than anything Clemson has done.

#4: Washington
Welcome back Washington! We knew that the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game (especially if it was the Wolverines) would open up a spot for the Huskies in the top four. If they beat Colorado in the Pac-12 championship game, you'd think they'd lock in a spot in the playoff. That may not be the case. Could Wisconsin leap over with an impressive win over Penn State? A loss would all but knock Washington out. But who would enter in their place?

First two out (plus one)

#5: Michigan
This is the most interesting spot in the entire rankings. Sure, if the four teams ahead of them in the rankings win this weekend (well, Ohio State doesn't play, but you get it) then the Wolverines do not have a shot. If one of those teams lose, however, what does that mean for Michigan? The case against them is the fact that they finished third in their division; THIRD! They have two losses and both were in their last three games of the season. You could also believe that the Wisconsin-Penn State winner would leapfrog Michigan in these rankings. The case for them is that their two losses were by a combined four points – both on the road – and both on the final play of the game. They also beat both Wisconsin and Penn State during the regular season so even though one of them can claim to be Big Ten champions, Michigan can say they beat them both (they beat Penn State by 39 points). So can they really get into the playoff? Sure. If both Clemson and Washington lose, why couldn't they join the Big Ten champ in the playoff? Would the committee, though, put three Big Ten teams in there with Alabama?

#6: Wisconsin
The Badgers have a shot at getting in if they beat Penn State in the Big Ten title game and some help elsewhere. The question really is how the committee made these rankings. They have Michigan ranked ahead of both Wisconsin and Penn State but could that change when one wins the Big Ten championship? To me, Wisconsin has a better case. Their two losses were to Ohio State and Michigan in consecutive weeks and both wins were by seven points, plus they beat Nebraska and LSU. If they add a Big Ten title, they may have the goods to get in if Clemson or Washington lose.

#7 Penn State
Penn State has that one huge jewel: they beat Ohio State. In everyone's eyes, Alabama and Ohio State are easily the best teams in the nation and the only team to beat either of them is the Nittany Lions. But can they overcome that 49-10 loss to Michigan and a loss to Pittsburgh (by the way, how about Pitt with wins over Penn State and Clemson). Penn State would have to demolish Wisconsin and hope both Clemson and Washington lose in order to get in. That is possible, though unlikely.

No one else has a real shot at this. Even if Colorado beats Washington in the Pac-12 title game, they won't jump Michigan or the Big Ten champion for a playoff spot. Same goes for Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, who face off for the Big 12 title.

The rest of the pack 
#8: Colorado
#9: Oklahoma (Sorry, Big 12. You're shut out again)
#10: Oklahoma State
#11: USC
#12: Florida State
#13: Louisville
#14: Auburn
#15: Florida
#16: West Virginia
#17: Western Michigan
#18: Stanford
#19: Navy
#20: Utah
#21: LSU
#22: Tennessee
#23: Virginia Tech
#24: Houston
#25: Pittsburgh (I told you. How about Pitt?)