Heisman Trophy futures: How about a running back this year?
It is getting harder and harder to win the Heisman Trophy as a running back. The last time it happened was in 2015 with Derrick Henry (Alabama). He rushed for 1800+ yards that season and a player might need even more than that to be in consideration.
Last season, Michigan's Blake Corum was on pace to be on the final ballot but he got hurt and carried the ball just two times in the big win over Ohio State. That hurt his season-long totals and robbed him of a chance to get a final push for the voters. Heading into 2023 he is the top running back on the board, but I have my eyes on another running back.
2023 Heisman Trophy Odds
Quinshon Judkins, Running Back, Ole Miss Rebels +5000
The Case For
Judkins is really good. He rushed for 1567 yards as a freshman last season and scored 16 touchdowns. both led the SEC, not the MAC, the SEC. As a freshman. Part of the reason I like Judkins so much is that I think those numbers can grow this season. Last year he had 15 or fewer carries in five games, including the early part of the season when he could have put up some big numbers in against nonconference opponents. Plus he was barely used in the passing game. There is room for growth.
On the team side, Ole Miss is not really a national title contender. However, they do play in the "best" league in the country with lots of opportunities to come up big against teams like LSU, Alabama, Georgia and more. Also, head coach Lane Kiffin is one of the best self-promoters in the game so he can elevate the conversation around his top player. That matters.
The Case Against
Yes, it feels like the deck is stacked against any running back these days. Offenses have just changed so much it is sometimes hard to overcome that. Not helping matters for Judkins is some uncertainty at the quarterback position for Ole Miss. They have a number of good options but running backs need effective passing games if they are going to thrive. Ole Miss might be having a new starting quarterback for a third straight season.
Even more than that, there is a very good chance that the Rebels are not much more than a .500 team this season and it might be hard for voters to wrap their head around the best player being on a team like that. This is where the subjectivity between the most valuable and most outstanding really come into sharp focus. Even 2000 yards might not cut it on a 6-6 Rebels team.
Value Rating: High
At +5000 a small play could lead to a very big reward on this play. Not to be underscored is the value of high-profile games for Judkins - Ole Miss has three top 5 opponents on its schedule right now. Unless he gets hurt the odds are going to only come down on this one so if you follow my logic now is the time.
A nice portfolio play.
More must-reads: