Heisman Trophy futures: Where's the buzz for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy?
Michigan has been on a heater of late. The Wolverines have won the last two Big Ten titles and made the college football playoffs and there is every expectation that this year's team is as good or better than those were. This is a complete team and they have a schedule that looks like it should have them right where they have been over the last couple of seasons.
That is why it is surprising to me that Michigan's QB1 is not getting more love and consideration in the Heisman futures market. He meets all of the criteria and now just might be the time to strike.
2023 Heisman Trophy Odds
J.J. McCarthy, Quarterback, Michigan +1800
The Case For
McCarthy meets all of the basic criteria for the award as he is the starting quarterback, on a power conference team that is expected to have a very good, potentially magical season. Right now, his only perceived deficit is a lack of eye-popping past production. But what if that is actually a benefit? McCarthy threw for just over 2700 yards last season, his first as a starter. That means there is a ton of room to grow, even if he does not post 4500+ like some of his Heisman competitors. More than it should be, growth is often a factor in how players are rated. McCarthy has the advantage of a good base with lots of room for improvement. I see 3500+ yards easily.
Team success is always a factor in Heisman voters' minds and knowing that, the Michigan schedule looks tailor-made for his consideration. Big Blue should rack up victories with ease and give McCarthy a chance to put up big numbers — and not take himself out of the equation. Then, with a few weeks left in the season, the Wolverines play at Penn State and home against Ohio State. Those games are perfect platforms for voters to appreciate just how good McCarthy is.
The Case Against
The primary concerns when it comes to McCarthy's Heisman candidacy are the guys he shares the backfield with. Running back Blake Corum was super productive last season and might have had a chance to win the award himself if he did not get hurt very late in the season (and he now has a "comeback" story). While Donovan Edwards showed he is more than capable of carrying the load and posting big numbers. Some suggest both could rush for more than 1200 yards this season. If that happens how much offense is left for the QB?
Given that he is unlikely to put up superlative numbers compared to other candidates, McCarthy's status is very closely tied to Michigan's success. They might have to be perfect for him to stay in the conversation and complete a trifecta of beating OSU, winning the Big Ten and making the college football playoffs, again. That is not easy. Anything less and it might feel like his season is a letdown.
Value Rating: High
This one is all about relative value. Compared to some of the other players at the top of the odds table McCarthy is not getting as much consideration as he should be. He is in a great situation where he can play well, win, and let some other candidates fall by the wayside along the way. I definitely want some of his stock in my portfolio.
Buy now.
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