The 2024 NFL Draft is now just one day away, and there's no argument that Caleb Williams will be the No. 1 overall pick. But is he really the best player available on the board, or even the best quarterback available for the taking?
There's actually a lot more debate over the long-term picture there than may meet the eye.
One of the biggest things to look at when analyzing quarterback prospects is how high their floor is. Recent history has shown with quarterbacks like San Francisco's Brock Purdy that high-floor quarterbacks who may not be perceived to have a sky-high ceiling can still lead teams to the highest stage football has to offer with the proper pieces around them, reaching higher heights than some of the "high ceiling traits-based" quarterbacks.
Williams has a high floor and a good ceiling with immense abilities as a pocket passer, but Michigan's J.J. McCarthy may have even more to offer.
McCarthy has checked all of the boxes on fitting the "game-manager" label, providing a rock-solid floor that helped bring a national title home to Michigan.
But he also possesses perhaps a completely untapped ceiling, as the arm talent and athleticism he brings to the table could be put on display in a different, more freewheeling offense that calls upon him to utilize it more often. The Michigan offense did not call upon him to do that much, simply asking to him to execute the offensive scheme at a high level (which he did), as McCarthy attempted just 332 passes last fall. He finished the season with a 72.3% completion rate.
On paper, he's got just about everything from a tangibles and intangibles perspective one could ask for from a quarterback.
Looking at the film between Williams and McCarthy, it could be argued that McCarthy is the winner when it comes to identifying defenses in the pre-snap process, more arm strength, stronger improvisation ability and a better sense of reaction time to pressure.
It should also not be downplayed the way that despite not having the best offensive line or most loaded supporting cast in a disappointing season at USC, many of the sacks Williams took were by fault of his own for holding onto the ball for too long.
That's an area he still needs to improve in heading into the league. According to NextGen stats, Williams took 3.44 seconds to throw in 2022 and 3.21 seconds to get the ball off in 2023.
Unlike McCarthy, Williams does not possess the same type of ability to do damage with his legs the way that a player like McCarthy can. So, if he falters at any point as a pure passer, and/or if some of the intangible concerns that have arisen with his controversial offseason comments and way of presenting himself overall begin to cause issues, he could quickly spiral downward.
With less than 24 hours until Caleb Williams becomes a member of the Chicago Bears, hardly anyone will dispute the fact he should be the first pick off the board.
That doesn't mean they won't eventually realize he shouldn't have been.
If his career goes best-case scenario, he could be the next Patrick Mahomes. But perhaps his Michigan counterpart, while with a different skillset, isn't too far off from being able to reach the same type of heights with a much lower chance of going bust.
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