NCAAF Betting: What we learned for Week 10 and beyond
Well, we lost another undefeated team this past weekend. If you were watching the lines drop from +10 to +7.5 you saw a lot of support for Kansas in the market but I did not see anyone predict the upset. Especially with their backup quarterback leading the way. You gotta give Kansas coach Lance Leipold credit though. Nobody really thought the Kansas program could be resurrected to this degree. That was an early game, even with storm delays and it pretty much stole the show.
Here are some other things I noticed ...
Air Force, James Madison and Liberty
These three programs are the only non-Power 5 schools that are still undefeated. That is going to start to get even more interest, not because they are likely to sneak into a College Football Playoff spot, but because the media loves those kinds of narratives. More attention generally means less value in the lines. Not always, but often.
Betting takeaway ... these might be teams to fade going forward. Not necessarily to lose, but to not live up to expectations.
Upsets Galore
In addition to the big one mentioned above, there were a lot of upsets over the weekend - including one each on Tuesday and Wednesday. The following teams all won games they were not supposed to on Saturday — West Virginia, UMass, Northwestern, NC State, Miami (Ohio), Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Arizona State, Arizona, and Georgia Tech. Plus a bunch of teams covered the spread as underdogs too last week.
Betting takeaway ... It is hard to know if there is a trend here or not. There might be a lot of factors — conference familiarity, reduced scoring, parity. There is something there and backing underdogs is always more fun.
More ACC Meh
Florida State won again and once again the rest of the conference was a vat of mediocrity or worse. Clemson lost at NC State and it might be fair to say this is no longer a top-tier program anymore. Making matters worse for the league was that North Carolina lost at Georgia Tech. The way things are trending the Seminoles might be the only ranked team at the end of the season.
Betting takeaway ... this was already a conference I was staying away from and this past week might have sealed it.
Washington By Default
The results of the weekend confirmed that Washington is the best team in the Pac-12, right? Oregon was the most impressive, stomping on Utah but the Huskies beat the Ducks in their head-to-head. Oregon State lost at Arizona, that was a tough one, but they can still influence the race as they play both of those teams to close the season. USC only won by one at Cal, so they are hardly back.
Betting takeaway ... The Pac-12 is pretty messy too. Not as bad as the ACC but still very difficult to sort out.
Top Spreadsters
I wrote about this a few weeks back when there were a few teams that had not lost against the spread for the season. There are none of those left but there are three teams that have just one ATS loss for the year, all 7-1 ATS. They are Arizona, UNLV, and Oregon. Other than being out West these teams are all pretty different and ironically their lone ATS losses all occurred in a game they actually won outright.
Betting takeaway ... the process of finding winners should always push you to look in the most obvious and not places.
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