NCAAF futures, Alabama win totals: Do not write off the Tide
Alabama missed the College Football Playoffs last season. They suffered two losses and did not even qualify for the SEC Championship Game. To make matters worse (at least for this upcoming season), they then lost their top offensive (QB Bryce Young) and defensive players (Edge Will Anderson), both selected in the top three of the NFL Draft in April.
That does not sound like a recipe for this team to get back to the playoffs this season, but writing off the Crimson Tide is not a wise move. Head coach Nick Saban is elite and even though they might have some roster question marks right now, odds are they are going to look pretty good on the field in the fall.
2023 Alabama Crimson Tide Win Total
Over 10.5 +140 / Under 10.5 -150
A quick look at the pricing is telling you the markets think under is the more likely outcome. It is Alabama though, so the reality is that there is no team on its schedule it can't beat. I am not sure I want to tie up my money for six months and root against Alabama all season long though and that price is not going to make it any fun. As for the over, I like that payoff but remember that it means that they are only losing one game all season long. There is not a lot of wiggle room there for a team that is not as good or experienced as it was a year ago.
In looking at their schedule, it is pretty typical with eight SEC games of varying challenges, one high-profile nonconference game at home against Texas, and a couple of cupcakes. In my opinion, the best teams on their schedule are all coming to Tuscaloosa, giving me a little pause on fading the Crimson Tide. The annual Iron Bowl grudge match with Auburn is on the road this season and how you feel about that one might influence which way you are leaning.
If you only want to make wagers on teams where you feel comfortable at quarterback then Alabama is a team to bypass right now. They have options, but none are at the level of what we have seen recently with the last three starters all being top 10 NFL draft picks. This season looks like it could be a return to more of a ball-control, win-with-defense approach and that might suit Alabama just fine — they do not need to worry about style points at this point. I am not sure it is enough to keep them above the top program in the SEC/nation from week to week.
This one is a pass right now but if I had to make a play it would be the under.
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