NCAAF futures, Arkansas win totals: High on the Hogs?
Arkansas did not match their win total of 2021 (nine) last season, but I would not say that is a reason to panic in Fayetteville. The SEC West is a tough division to call home and four of their six SEC losses were by three points or less last year. If they split those more evenly they are right back to nine wins and everyone is saying that Arkansas is "back" after back-to-back strong seasons.
Heading into 2023 Arkansas is looking to maximize the final season of quarterback KJ Jefferson. He might be the best quarterback in the conference this season and that is a pretty good place to start if you are trying to have success. The questions surround the rest of the team where less than half of the starters are returning. This team has room for improvement.
2023 Arkansas Razorbacks Win Total
Over 7.5 +140 / Under 7.5 -170
At the current pricing, it is like they are daring you to take that over. If you want to make a -170 bet you are probably better off waiting for the next time the Dodgers take on the Rockies rather than tie up your money. That payoff on the over is tempting even if it does represent more wins than they had a year ago. With the gap between the prices it looks like the books have already taken some money here as opposed to a true power-rated line.
A lot of that also has to do with scheduling and sitting in the SEC Arkansas has a tough one. They start with three straight home games in the nonconference but it is their road schedule that worries me. Over the course of the season, they are at Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, and Florida. Plus they have a neutral site game (in Arlington) against Texas A&M. They are not going to be favored in any of those contests, which means they have to be perfect in all of the other tilts to have any chance at covering that over. That looks like too much to ask for this season.
Last year, the Arkansas offense was better than we have seen in some time. They averaged more than 30 ppg thanks to the dual-threat nature of Jefferson and a very strong running game. Getting back to that level of production is probably not a reasonable expectation unless they can find that great balance and replace all of their top pass catchers from a year ago. If they can't, they need the defense to dramatically improve. They gave up more than seven points per game more last year than they did in 2021.
While I want to find a way to back the over (to collect that payoff), I just can't get there. The schedule is tough and even though the Razorbacks have adopted the scrappy demeanor of their coach, that is not going to be enough. There is a reason this is priced the way it is. I wouldn't invest my money but the under is the way to go.
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