NCAAF Top 25 futures: Florida State is making noise, in the ACC and nationally
Florida State is still in the ACC, whether they like it or not. They also appear to be the best team in the league for 2023, though Clemson is in no hurry to cede the league back to them. A lot of eyes are on the Seminoles right now.
This is the most preseason hype for the Seminoles in some time too. Head coach Jay Norvell seems to have the roster teeming with talent and they are set at quarterback with Jordan Travis. Florida State should be good on both sides of the ball and we will find out quickly just how good they are thanks to a tough early schedule.
No. 6 Florida State Seminoles 2023 Win Total
Over 10 +130/ Under 10 -150
While Florida State is in a lot better position than they were just a few years ago, I am hesitant to say they are back. Norvell has increased the talent base for sure, but the program has yet to really have an extended run of high-level play that makes you believe they are really in the discussion to win it all. That is a big reason that the markets are favoring the under at the current number. At -150, they seem pretty firm on that position, making the over the only play really worth considering right now. Let's see if we can get there.
Florida State has a pretty modest schedule if they are able to click quickly in 2023. That is because their two most challenging games are in September, beginning with the best game of the opening weekend against LSU (who they beat by a point last year). This is a neutral site contest against a fellow Top 10 team in Orlando, not on campus. The crowd is likely to be split. The other big game is against ACC rival Clemson in Death Valley at the end of the month. In my estimation, those are the only games where the Seminoles will not be favored by at least a touchdown as they navigate a light ACC this season (even going to Florida at the end of the season). How many of them do you think they win?
Last season, Norvell got the offense humming for FSU. Travis was efficient and there is still some room to improve there. He has his top rusher and top receiver to work with this season and there is lots of experience on the line in front of him so there is no reason to expect a step back. The defense features Jared Verse, one of the top edge rushers in the country. The overall defensive numbers from a year ago were very good, but the Seminoles are still a long way from being scary on that side of the ball. In two of their three losses, they gave up 30+ points, including a loss to Clemson, the team they are trying to pass in the ACC. There is a lot to like about this roster and how the Seminoles are playing for Norvell.
Florida State is going to be very good this season. Per the above, just how good will hinge on those critical games against Clemson and LSU. I can see a split in those contests, and thus good value with that win total over paying off at +130. The only downside is you will probably know about your ticket by the end of September so why tie up your money for the three months afterward? Is FSU the 6th best team in the country? Maybe. Either way, they look like a profitable play.
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