NCAAF Top 25 futures: Industrious Beavers have Oregon State relevant
Oregon State football has had occasional success, mostly centered around Jonathan Smith, either as quarterback or coach. Last year, he had the Beavers cooking, including a win over Oregon in the annual Civil War, which doesn't happen very often. Like any upstart program though, the question is whether they can do it again.
The hope is that bringing in a surprise transfer quarterback gives the offense enough juice to keep winning ball games. At one point DJ Uiagalelei was a top prospect, which is how he wound up at Clemson. Now he is just trying to prove he isn't really a TE before the end of his college career. If he gets straightened out there is enough going on for the Beavers to keep winning.
No. 17 Oregon State Beavers 2023 Win Total
Over 8.5 +120 / Under 8.5 -140
The pricing is saying to not expect the Beavers to repeat the success of last season. Last year's 10 wins were an outlier and these numbers are saying a return to the seven wins they had the year before is the most likely scenario. I am not sure I totally agree, but history is definitely on your side. There is not a lot of value on that under though if you are going to play it right now, while the over at least has an intriguing payoff.
Oregon State has a manageable schedule for 2023. They are staying out West all season, with their three nonconference games against San Jose State, UC Davis, and San Diego State, only the Aztecs should give them much trouble, but that game is at least at home. Once they get to Pac-12 play the schedule really stiffens though. The Beavers avoid USC, but that is about the only advantage they have. They have possibly one gimme on the road, and one at home, but the rest of the schedule is very challenging. Not to be underrated are back-to-back road games against Arizona and Colorado in the second half of the season, those two programs are on the way up in the league. They are visiting Oregon for the Civil War to close the year too. Their road schedule is difficult. If they look as good at the end of the season as they did last year, it will be that much more impressive.
The fact that the Beavers got DJU was impressive: they have not traditionally been a hot transfer destination. The question is how useful he really is. Smith has had success with less talented quarterbacks and the Beavers are all about toughness and physicality, which is his strength. He has to be able to get the ball into the end zone and not be a liability for a team that wants to run the ball. I can see him being very effective, even though he is not going to re-establish himself as a top NFL prospect. I don't think. On defense, Oregon State is better than you realize. They are going to need to keep that up against a league that is brimming with top QB talent this season. Per the scheduling, they miss the best one (Caleb Williams) by avoiding USC, but Washington, Oregon, and Utah are all very dangerous.
As much as I love the Oregon State story, I am with the market on the Beavers for this season. It is a tough ride through the Pac-12 this year and that SDSU game is always tricky, they usually beat one Pac-12 team per season. There are just too many games where they are going to be underdogs to be optimistic. Take the under.
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