NCAAF Top 25 futures: Wisconsin Badgers hope new coach is key to return to relevance in Big Ten
Wisconsin is looking to get the program back among the elite in the Big Ten before USC and UCLA join the league next season. With that in mind, they brought in Luke Fickell as head coach, and there is no reason to think he cannot stabilize things, maybe more. The hard part is that while Wisconsin has been super consistent overall, things are really rolling right now at Ohio State, Michigan, and even Penn State.
The Badgers are going to look a little different this season. In addition to the new head coach, they are going to be using an offense that is not as ground-heavy as what we are used to seeing. That is a modernization, but it is far from a sure thing in terms of immediate success. They have a lot of "new" this season so the dividend might come down the road.
No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers 2023 Win Total
Over 8.5 -125 / Under 8.5 +100
The Badgers won only seven games last season, a low point they hadn't reached (in a full season) since 2008. The market is saying they should be better than they were a season ago and they do still have the luxury of being in the lesser of the two divisions in the Big Ten. Fickell saw the Badgers as a better opportunity than going with the Cincinnati program he built to the Big 12 this season. That makes sense, at least financially. There is a lot of transition going on in Madison and winning when that is happening is no guarantee. They usually like to keep it in the family so this is a departure. The last time they went outside there was turmoil, even though the winning never stopped. Folks in Madison can stomach some noise if that happens again.
The schedule is definitely favorable to the new regime. The non-conference slate is very light, even if they do hit the road to go to west to Washington State. Within the Big Ten, their toughest games are at home (Ohio State and Iowa) and they miss Michigan and Penn State. They should breeze through the rest of their home schedule this season and trips to Purdue and Illinois are games they should be favored in. Right now the Badgers are the favorites in the Big Ten West and if that assessment is right, nine or 10 wins should follow.
In trying to spice up the offense Fickell has brought in Phil Longo (North Carolina) at offensive coordinator and Tanner Mordecai (SMU) at quarterback. On the surface, it looks like a good fit but only time will tell and it is hard to know how much of the rest of the program is ready for the change. Fickell has security, but there is pressure too. The offense kind of has nowhere to go but up though. On defense, there are big changes too. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard got a chance to be the head coach last season, but when he was not offered the gig full time he left. That was to be expected and those are big shoes to fill. He was a legacy and good at his job. The Wisconsin defense always seemed better than its constituent parts and they need that again.
To get to this over I think the Badgers have to win every game they are supposed to. That might be a little too much to ask for new staff installing new systems, new routines, and a new quarterback. That is why I am leaning under.
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