NCAAF Week 11 In Review: Lessons for Week 12 and beyond
Well, this was certainly an interesting week of college football to look back on. Despite losing its coach, Michigan won again, silencing some critics (not me ... I was with them). Speaking of losing their coaches, Texas A&M and Boise State are going to be looking for new bench bosses, so they have officially become betting wild cards down the stretch too.
We are running out of weeks in the season so at least we have data, right? Sometimes that is not enough and you have to use your gut too. Here is what mine saw last week.
Jayden Daniels for Heisman
Coming into the season, he was not at the top of the odds table. That was Caleb Williams, from USC. LSU is not in the hunt for anything meaningful this season but that does not take anything away from his brilliance this year. Daniels leads the SEC in passing and is third in the conference in rushing. In some games it seems like he is single-handedly keeping them relevant ... just look at the box score from last week. He has one more game to make his case.
Betting takeaway ... You can still get Daniels at +380 in the Heisman race. I am not saying he should be the favorite but he is gaining and one of the top two (Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. is going to take a loss to the other).
Mountain West ... What?
One of my best bets last week was Air Force at Hawaii. I wasn't thrilled with the number but thought the Falcons would dominate, not lose. In a league where there is often a fair amount of parity, things are turned on their head right now. UNLV is whipping teams and Boise State is firing coaches midseason. Only one game last week finished within 14 points, with some very surprising blowouts.
Betting takeaway ... Five teams have a couple of losses or fewer so the final couple of games are going to have a lot of meaning at the top of the league. Also, only three teams in the league are removed from being bowl-eligible right now. Tread carefully.
Statement by Big Blue
Michigan won on Saturday at Penn State (they covered, too). They did so without their head coach and by running the ball 29 straight times at one point. That is unheard of in modern football unless you are running the option these days. That sequence might have killed the Heisman campaign of QB J.J. McCarthy but I actually thinks it helps Michigan's overall championship outlook. This team is just looking to win and has the horses to do it.
Betting takeaway ... Michigan is at the top of the odds table right now at +210. That is actually pretty good value at this point. The payoff is not that far down the road and even a loss to Ohio State might not knock them out of the playoffs.
Lack Thereof By Florida State
I thought that Florida State wanted to be taken seriously. The way things are going I can see a slew of single-loss teams I would rather see in the playoffs over an undefeated FSU squad. The Seminoles have been on autopilot ever since the Clemson game and have not covered in the last couple of games against a weak ACC. It is hard to see how they turn it back on.
Betting takeaway ... FSU might have the easiest path to the playoffs but that doesn't mean you should back them to win it all. Can you see them beating any combo of Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, Washington, Alabama, or Oregon? Or even one of them that you could hedge from.
What to do About Alabama?
I know this article has more of a futures vibe this week; we are getting to the end of the season though. Right now Alabama is third in the odds table to win the Championship at +650. There is a big gap between them and Georgia, but the pricing seems to be telling us that oddsmakers see them beating Georgia in the SEC Championship because a second loss, is going to make it tough for the selection committee to work with.
Betting takeaway ... That payoff is very enticing. Especially if you agree that Alabama can beat Georgia. If they can do it once, why not twice? Right?
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