The introduction of the transfer portal and NIL are often cited as the death of college football by many fans, but the numbers say the opposite.
NIL and the transfer portal completely changed the landscape of college football over the last two years, and long-time fans are not used to the new product that college football has become.
In an article from Sports Illustrated, Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban doesn’t say that these things are bad, but he does say they will drastically alter the nature of the sport.
“We’re moving in the sort of semi-pro direction in terms of, there’s pay-for-play now. We call it name, image and likeness, but that’s pay-for-play, basically — and I’m all for the players sharing in what’s happening,” Saban said earlier this week. “You’ve got guys transferring from one team to the next at will with very little guidelines as to how to control any of these things, and we’re gonna have a playoff very similar to the NFL.
“And I’m not saying any of those things are bad. I’m just saying they’re all completely changes from what we had five years ago, 10 years ago, whatever.”
College football fans have been vocal regarding NIL and the transfer portal since their inception, but only time will tell the true long-lasting impact that these things have on the sport. One thing that is often cited as being “killed” as a result of these new aspects pf college football is bowl season.
There could be solutions for bowl season that do not involve the complete demolition of NIL and the transfer portal. One solution is to change the transfer portal window to after bowl games. Another solution could be making NIL payouts dependent on number of games played.
The NIL and the transfer portal are in their most unregulated era. As things pan out, the NCAA will almost certainly create guidelines to alleviate the current problems that have arisen as a result of the new system.
Attendance and viewership are up in recent years, despite NIL and the transfer portal
The only way to statistically measure whether college football is dying is to measure the number of people watching the sport. Even if long-time fans are saying that the sport doesn’t feel the same, the numbers don’t lie. More people are watching college football than ever before.
94 of 133 college football teams saw increased attendance in the 2023 season. The Colorado Buffaloes saw a 24.12% increase in attendance, and it is largely due to head coach Deion Sanders‘ ability to instantly change the perspective of a team through the transfer portal.
The Florida State Seminoles saw a 23.3% increase in attendance over the last five years. Head coach Jay Norvell effectively utilized the transfer portal to build that program back to being one of the best teams in college football.
This past weekend’s College Football Playoff games saw in increase in viewership as well. The Rose Bowl featuring the Michigan Wolverines and the Alabama Crimson Tide reached 27.2 million viewers, ESPN announced Tuesday.
This was the most since the inception of the College Football Playoff, and was enough to be a top-10 cable telecast of all-time. It was also the top non-NFL sporting event since 2018.
Parity increased in college football since the inception of NIL and the transfer portal
This year’s College Football Playoff saw three teams that had not won a national championship in decades. Aside from Alabama, the most recent National Championship came from the Texas Longhorns in the 2005-2006 season. Michigan and the Washington Huskies had both not won a championship since the 1990s.
This is also the first time a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team has gone three years without a national title. It was the first time since 2007 that Alabama was not ranked No. 1 in the AP poll.
There were 22 undefeated teams through the first five weeks this season, which was the most after five weeks in 11 years. The inception of NIL and the transfer portal has also given fans hope as they don’t feel they will have to wait for a program to develop.
If you’re favorite team is one quarterback away from being good, there is now the hope that they can turn it around in just one year. This year has seen a distribution of five-star players in the recruiting process unlike there has ever been.
This recruiting cycle only has one team with multiple top-10 recruits, and that team is the Georgia Bulldogs. In 2020, three separate teams had multiple top-10 recruits. With NIL, teams like the Missouri Tigers and the Nebraska Cornhuskers are able to entice five-star recruits when they would not have been able to in the past.
In an article from CBS Sports, CEO of NIL clearinghouse Opendorse Blake Lawrence encapsulates this sentiment.
“The combination of NIL and transfer portal is leading to a more even distribution of talent across college football,” said Blake Lawrence, CEO of NIL clearinghouse Opendorse. “That’s leading to more parity than ever.”
Although negatives have come as a result of NIL and the transfer portal, it is hard to say that the sport is dying. Bowl games have lost meaning, loyalty is fading and the charm of college football is becoming nonexistent. Despite these negatives, the sport is thriving and more people are watching.
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