Predicting who wins the College Football Playoff National Championship may feel like an impossible task in this era of the game, but it is not. In fact, there's a pretty simple method to at least help identify the most likely national champion every single year, even in today's era of the Transfer Portal, NIL, and upcoming revenue sharing.
How is this possible? And if so, who are the most likely teams to win the national championship this upcoming college football season?
The short answer? Find the team(s) with the most future NFL Draft picks on it and you'll find your national champion. That might sound too simplistic, but when we look back at the anatomy of the previous eight national championship rosters that's just about all that's mattered. Let's dive into both previous champions and which program(s) that might have enough NFL talent to win it all this year.
CFB National Champions (2017-2024)
2024 Ohio State - 4 first round picks, 14 players drafted
2023 Michigan - 1 first round pick, 13 players drafted
2022 Georgia - 3 first round picks, 10 players drafted
2021 Georgia - 5 first round picks, 15 players drafted
2020 Alabama - 6 first round picks, 10 players drafted
2019 LSU - 5 first round picks, 14 players drafted
2018 Clemson - 3 first round picks , 6 players drafted
2017 Alabama - 4 first round picks, 12 players drafted
When we look back at the last eight college football champions it's clear they were all absolutely stacked with NFL talent. In fact, six of the last eight champions ended up with the most first round draft picks in the following NFL Draft. Seven of the last eight champions had the most players selected overall.
The lone exception in the last eight years was 2018 Clemson. They neither finished with the most first round picks or the most players drafted overall. However, they had an elite defensive front (Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell) and Trevor Lawrence at quarterback who would go on to become the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
College Football Playoff National Champions average just about four first round draft picks and 12 total players selected in the NFL Draft following their big win. So, how do we find out which teams possess that level of requisite NFL talent to pull off a national championship?
Outside of recruiting talent composites–which are a bit murky now in the Transfer Portal era–the best proxy option(s) that we have this early in the process are "way too early" NFL Mock Drafts. Generally, the best individual mock drafts published a year in advance predict between just 12 and 14 future first round picks. However, the collective consensus has been known to successfully pick more than half of round one this far out, as well as identify many other early round selections.
So, what do early 2026 NFL Mock Drafts (and their consensus) tell us about who the "real" contenders might be this season? I pulled data from 20 reputable sources for early 2026 NFL Mock Drafts and formed a consensus Top 100 which you can find in the post below.
Consensus 2026 NFL Draft First Round Picks
Clemson - 5
Oregon - 4
Texas - 3
Penn State - 3
There are just four programs with three or more consensus first round picks for the 2026 NFL Draft as of this writing. Seven of the last eight national champions had at least three first round picks on the team. The only one that didn't was 2023-24 Michigan, and the Wolverines had three more future first rounds picks selected this spring who helped that team win it all.
That's not to say that it's impossible for any team outside of the Clemson Tigers, Oregon Ducks, Texas Longhorns, and Penn State Nittany Lions to win, but it would go against recent historical trends.
Clemson leads the way with five potential first round picks next spring: Cade Klubnik (QB), T.J. Parker (EDGE), Peter Woods (DL), Avieon Terrell (CB), and Antonio Williams (WR).
Oregon has four: Matayo Uiagalelei (EDGE), Isaiah World (OT), Dillon Thieneman (S), and Evan Stewart (WR).
Texas has three: Arch Manning (QB, likely not declaring), Anthony Hill Jr. (LB), and Malik Muhammad (CB).
Penn State has three: Drew Allar (QB), Dani Dennis-Sutton (EDGE), and Nick Singleton (RB).
Three schools return a quarterback who saw significant action for the team last year. They all boast elite defenses with at least one blue chip first round talent on both sides of the ball. The path is certainly there for all four, but Oregon would certainly need to see a huge step forward from transfer quarterback Dante Moore who struggled at UCLA two seasons ago.
Outside of those four, the "best of the rest" candidates to win the national championship include several familiar faces, all of which have five or more consensus Top 100 prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft as of this writing.
Consensus 2026 NFL Draft Top 100 Picks
Alabama - 8
Clemson - 7
Georgia - 7
Oregon - 6
Penn State - 6
Texas - 6
Florida - 6
Ohio State - 5
Texas A&M - 5
LSU - 5
The last eight national championship teams not only almost always had double-digit players drafted, but the majority were also Top 100 picks too. This extensive list of 10 teams likely encompasses all the programs with a real shot at a national championship this season. In fact all 10 of the teams listed rank inside the top 15 best odds to win it all according to sports books.
Only one team not listed above is currently deemed to have greater than a 4% chance to win the national championship via sports books, and that's Notre Dame. Jeremiyah Love, the Fighting Irish's star feature running back, is expected to be a first round pick, but unless he pulls an Ashton Jeanty it's likely going to be tough for him to carry Notre Dame back to the championship virtually by himself.
Alabama could be a sneaky "sleeper" pick (strange times we live in) to win it all this year given the fact that they have five of the current top 44 prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft class. Georgia, Florida, Ohio State, and LSU all have at least four of the top 70 as well. All of these blue blood programs might not really surprise anyone if they pulled things together and made a run to the championship game. However, for many of them, it's just simply going to come down to quarterback play.
Florida will go as far as young five star phenom DJ Lagway can carry them (if he's healthy). Georgia (with Gunner Stockton), Ohio State (likely Julian Sayin), and Alabama (likely Ty Simpson) will all be installing new starting quarterbacks. LSU, on the other hand, is returning Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback and just brought in the top ranked Transfer Portal class in the country. They might just have a shot despite ranking 9th in betting odds probability to win the championship.
However, if recent history and roster construction is any indication this year's national championship is going to come down to three teams: Clemson, Texas, and Penn State. All three return high pedigree talented quarterbacks with first round upside who saw at least 200 snaps last year for their respective teams. They all project to have at least three first rounders and a half dozen or more top 100 prospects. And all three have balanced rosters with early draft picks on both sides of the ball.
One of a few other blue blood programs with depth of draft-worthy talent may end up winning the day instead, but Clemson should be considered closer to "chalk", with Texas and Penn State not far behind. Somehow Clemson currently ranks 8th, Texas 2nd, and Penn State 3rd in respective betting odds probability to win it all (behind Ohio State). Do with that what you will.
We'll be back with more College Football coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
And if you want to see why Cade Klubnik might be the most important player in college football in 2025 just check out his highlights in the video below that show the massive steps forward in his development last season.
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