Report: Big 12 'in recent contact' with four Pac-12 schools
Pac-12 schools Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah could be on the verge of moving to the Big 12, per a report from The Athletic.
"March may be the moment when the Big 12 finally strikes," wrote Max Olson and Stewart Mandel for the outlet, noting Big 12 officials have "been in recent contact" with the four Pac-12 members.
The two conferences are in a power struggle as they brace for losing key members after 2023. This season will be the last for Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12 and UCLA and USC in the Pac-12.
Oklahoma and Texas are leaving for the SEC on July 1, 2024. UCLA and USC will leave for the Big Ten on Aug. 2, 2024.
The Big 12 has reinforcements on the way this season after recruiting three members of the American Athletic Conference — Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — as well as independent BYU.
If the conference lands the four Pac-12 schools, that would give the Big 12 a 16-team conference once the Sooners and Longhorns depart, the same number of teams as the Big Ten and SEC will have with their 2024 additions.
The Pac-12's hopes of retaining its members rest in a strong media rights deal, which is far from a sure thing. Olson and Mandel wrote that there's a confluence of factors working against the conference. The most troubling one for the Pac-12 is a lack of interest from prospective buyers.
The Athletic's Richard Deitsch recently reported Amazon is interested in a weekly Friday night game. Apple and ESPN are the other known suitors. Any deal with a streaming-only platform such as Amazon or Apple would significantly cut down viewership.
ESPN isn't expected to have an interest in a large package of games after Disney CEO Bob Iger recently said the company will "have to get more selective" when it comes to its future investments in sports programming.
Per Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News, a Pac 12 TV deal is expected "by April 1." He projects the new media rights deal will average $28.5 million per school.
That would be the lowest of the "Power Five" conferences.
The ACC's TV deal averaged $36.1 million per school during the 2020-21 season while deals for the SEC ($54.6 million per school in 2022) and Big Ten ($71 million per school) are the envy of every other conference.
The new Big 12 TV deal will average $31.7 million per member. Olson reported in November a pro rata clause was included, which means the deal's value will increase if the conference expands, with Sports Business Journal's Michael Smith adding that it only applies if the conference adds "Power Five" schools.
It's a perfect storm for another major shift in college football, with the Pac-12 the odd conference out.
That is, of course, until Florida State grows tired of its share of the ACC's media rights' pie and demands a release.
When it comes to conference realignment in college football, we're only at the tip of the iceberg.
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