Scout's view: Why Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. is overrated as 2024 draft prospect
Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.
Per NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, Barstool Sports, the 33rd Team, The Athletic and other outlets have jumped on the bandwagon of Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. as a first-round draft pick, but the left-handed thrower ranks far lower on my list of QBs for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Based on Penix's medical history alone, a giant red flag should appear next to his name. Before transferring to Washington in December 2021, he battled through four injury-plagued seasons at Indiana, never playing more than six games in a season.
These weren't minor injuries, either. Here's a summary:
2018: Torn ACL | 2019: Sternoclavicular joint | 2020: Torn ACL | 2021: AC joint (shoulder)
Penix stayed healthy in 2022, but on game film, his previous injuries appear to have taken a toll on his overall throwing ability, especially his velocity.
Another concerning issue is Penix's roller-coaster-like completion percentages:
2018: 61.8% | 2019: 68.8% | 2020: 56.4% | 2021: 53.7% | 2022: 65.3%
Less concerning is the fact that Penix is a lefty, but it's worth noting the relative dearth of southpaw QBs in NFL history. The only current left-handed-throwing QB is Miami's Tua Tagovailoa.
Former NFL QB and current Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who is a lefty himself, spoke to Bleacher Report about the difference between catching from a right-handed QB versus a lefty.
"When it naturally fades or drifts, it's going the opposite way it would from a righty," he said. "I don't think it's a critical thing. It's not like a receiver simply can't catch the ball because it's coming from a lefty. But sometimes guys, the first time they see it — especially if they've never caught from a lefty before — it feels little bit different."
The lefty-righty thing aside, Penix raised other flags for me based on watching game film of nine of the 13 games he played last season.
1. Poor throwing mechanics
His release time varies, and he tends to throw from a narrow base with his legs closer together, which can lead to off-target throws. He torques his body and doesn't always set his feet before releasing. He steers the ball more than relying on a balanced, equally distributed follow-through. He also has a tendency to lock in on receivers — a big no-no in the NFL.
2. He's erratic
He is inconsistent in ball placement on short, intermediate and deep routes. That's not good, is it? He sometimes tries to force a pass, another huge no-no — especially in the NFL. This sounds harsh, but watching Penix throw inside and outside the pocket is like watching someone fire a popgun at a target at a carnival while wearing a blindfold.
Last season, he completed 65.3% of his passes thanks, in part, to his receivers, who often hauled in imperfectly tossed throws. Penix infrequently put his receivers in position to pick up yards after the catch.
3. Pass breakups
Penix threw eight interceptions last season, which isn't bad considering he threw 554 passes, but I charted 32 pass disruptions by defenders (3.56 average per game), the highest average among any QBs I studied over the summer. Disrupted passes can turn into interceptions.
By comparison, the figures for North Carolina's Drake Maye (1.93), Washington State's Cameron Ward (2.38), Florida State's Jordan Travis (2.46), Texas' Quinn Ewers (2.5), South Carolina's Spencer Rattler (2.83) and Utah's Cameron Rising (3.4) were lower. I have given each of them a first-round grade.
Bottom line
At this early point in the draft evaluation process, Penix's many flaws led me to give him a sixth-round grade. He won't beat anyone rushing (99 career carries for 257 yards), either, so he'll have to beat NFL defenses with his arm.
Good luck with that.
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