The TCU Horned Frogs (4-3, 2-2) hit the road to begin their toughest stretch of the season yet, facing the Kansas State Wildcats (4-2, 2-1) in Week 8. Josh Hoover fixes to make his second start of the season, coming off a stellar debut where he threw four touchdowns. TCU is a 6.5-point road underdog and the game has a point total set at 59.5 points.
TCU at Kansas State kicks off Saturday, October 21, at 7:00 p.m. CT from Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Catch the game on ESPN or on the radio at 88.7 FM KTCU.
Need a quick rundown on how betting odds work?
WATCH! TCU At Kansas State Preview: KillerFrogs College Football Podcast
TCU At Kansas State Pick Against The Spread
Watching how lines move can tell you a lot about who is betting what side in a game. Contrary to common belief, lines are not moved by lumps of "public" money (or non-betting professionals) and don't always take $100K to influence. Early in the week, sportsbooks set wager limits low, oftentimes under $500. Early professionals to the window move lines quickly. As the week progresses, lines get sharper due to more pros betting sides.
By the time Thursday and Friday rolls around, limits are high and this is when the high-rollers and serious professionals tell their tales. Large late-week movements are often indicative of "sharp" and "square" sides.
Also, when a line doesn't move, that's telling, too. In this case, the TCU-Kansas State line was bet down from +7.5 to +6.5 early in the week, then stayed static.
That tells me professional money liked TCU at +7 and better, but not Kansas State at -6.5 or better. Regardless of how I handicap this game personally, this is a hands-off spread.
TCU At Kansas State Over/Under Pick
The 44-point avalanche from last week managed to re-set the offensive expectations for TCU. Early in the season, I liked to capitalize on unders involving the Horned Frogs because their defense was better than expectation and the offense was playing well under expectation. Was the big offensive outpouring due to the QB change? Was it the result of their matchup with BYU? Maybe even just dumb luck? (After all, TCU opened the game with a pick-six.)
Either way, I'm back on the under – my bet for this game is Under 59.5 points (-108).
Kansas State is recreating their offensive identity, as well, waffling between Will Howard and freshman phenom Avery Johnson. Last week, the freshman out-snapped Howard for the first time all season and rushed for FIVE touchdowns. Those five ground scores accounted for all of Kansas State's TDs.
I'm betting against Johnson finding pay dirt another five times. This game features two above-average defenses and offenses undergoing shifts at QB. Under is the play on my Saturday betting card.
Brett Gibbons is a lead college football betting writer for TheLines.com.
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