Auburn's Struggle to Land Top Recruits Reflected in CBS Sports Metric

CBS Sports released its annual Blue-Chip Ratio on Friday, a metric of which teams have recruited well enough to win a National Championship. Though the ratio is a good predictor of success, it doesn’t always guarantee it. The biggest underachiever according to the model? The Auburn Tigers.

The Blue-Chip Ratio, created by Bud Elliott in 2013, has shown that each National Champion in that span has had a roster of at least 53% four and five-star recruits, known as blue-chip prospects. However, despite being above the 50% cut line in each of the last four seasons, Auburn hasn’t come anywhere close to a National Championship. The Tigers are just 22-28 in that span, the worst mark of any Blue-Chip Ratio school.

Auburn enters the 2025 season with a blue chip ratio of 64%, good enough for No. 13 in college football. Despite that, the Tigers’ win total is set at just 7.5 for 2025, tied with Florida for the second-lowest of any blue-chip ratio team. Auburn’s strength of schedule is just No. 14 compared to the Gators, who have the toughest in the nation.

So, what has been the disconnect for the Tigers? Well, the main issue has been at the offensive skill positions. The highest passing yardage put up by any Auburn quarterback in the past four seasons is just 2,713 by Payton Thorne in 2024. However, the 2024 Auburn offense still couldn’t find the endzone, ranking No. 108 in red zone scoring in addition to being tied for No. 105 in total turnovers. 

As far as the pure talent at the position, Bo Nix was a five-star according to the 247 composite, but he only remained on The Plains for one season. Robby Ashford was a fringe four-star according to the composite, but a three-star in 247’s eyes. Payton Thorne was never rated higher than a three-star at any point.

At wide receiver, the story is even worse. Until the “Freeze Four” arrived on campus, the highest-rated receiver prospect playing for the Tigers at any point during the last four seasons was either Ja’Varrius Johnson, Koy Moore or Caleb Burton III, depending on which recruiting site they were listed on. Each was a fringe four-star recruit at best, and none of them would ever record more than 493 yards or 3 touchdowns in their time on The Plains.

However, Auburn has begun to turn around the issues on the playmaking front. Cam Coleman and KeAndre Lambert-Smith both played well for the Tigers in 2024. Though Lambert-Smith will be on an NFL field in 2025, Coleman is back alongside Georgia Tech’s Eric Singleton Jr, former fringe five-star Perry Thompson, and Wake Forest’s Horatio Fields. 

Each of those receivers will be depending on Auburn’s biggest addition in the offseason transfer portal for success: former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold. Arnold is a former top 10 overall prospect and Gatorade Player of the Year out of Texas and a higher-rated recruit than either Nix or even Cam Newton.

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