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Baylor football's chances to beat UCF in Waco in Week 10

Originally posted on Baylor Bears on SI | By Trent Knoop | Last updated Oct 28, 2025 10:39 AM ET

Baylor had another setback to what was supposed to be a magical season for the Bears. After falling to Cincinnati on Saturday, Baylor moved to 4-4 on the year, and there aren't any games guaranteed the rest of the way out. If the Bears hope to make the postseason and go bowling, they need to win two more games.

This week, Baylor returns to Waco in hopes of getting back into the win column. The Bears will host the UCF Knights, who are coming off a bye week. Entering this week, Baylor has opened up as a small favorite against UCF.

Baylor's opening line vs. UCF

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Despite Baylor being at home and having a better Big 12 record than UCF, the Bears aren't favored by too many against the Knights. According to DraftKings, Baylor has opened as a 4.5-point favorite over UCF. The over/under is set at 60.5 points.

Odds to beat UCF

According to the advanced analytics, via ESPN, Baylor has a 51.4% chance to beat the Knights in Waco. At the beginning of the season, Baylor was expected to win this game with ease, but with the amount of turnovers, to go along with a poor defense -- nothing is a given with Baylor.

History between the two programs

Since UCF joined the Big 12, the two teams have only played once, but they have played twice in the history of the series. The Bears and Knights are 1-1 against one another, and Baylor was the team that came out on top back in 2023. The game was down in Florida, and Baylor won a close one, 36-35. The only other time the two played against each other was back in 2013 in a New Year's Eve bowl. UCF won, 52-42.

Back in 2023, Baylor outscored UCF, 26-0 in the fourth quarter to come away with the win. Isaiah Hankins kicked the game-winning field goal with 1:21 left on the clock. In the game, QB Blake Shapen threw for 293 yards and a score. WR Monaray Baldwin was Shapen's go-to target. He caught seven passes for 150 yards and a score. RB Richard Reese aslo played well. Carrying the rock 16 times for 100 yards to help Baylor's ground attack.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article first appeared on Baylor Bears on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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