FCS Football Playoffs: 6 Big Sky Teams?

FCS FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS EXPLANATION

THE SEEDS

There’s no movement in the top two. I was one of only six STATS/PERFORM media voters (out of 54) last week to make the move to push Sacramento State above South Dakota State into the No. 1 spot, and I’m not budging this week, either. Look, they’re both good — but a week from right now? That tough call will need to be made.

Why does it matter? Well, who do you want coming to your place for the national semis if you make it that far: North Dakota State? Montana State maybe (if they get past the Griz this week)? Weber State maybe?

That’s why, even though the top two would play in the national title in Frisco, Texas (neutral field), it is important to SDSU and Sacramento State.

I put Montana State at No. 3 ahead of North Dakota State this week. I feel like NDSU’s three-point win on the road at a struggling Southern Illinois team showed some vulnerability, but that statement (and mentality) will likely come back to haunt whoever thinks it (including me). Montana State’s done some good things, but not having to play Sacramento State and Idaho this year does make me wonder some. But I did it and I’ll stick to it for a week.

I swapped Weber State back ahead of William & Mary for No. 5, too. The truth is? W&M’s better wins aren’t aging well, while Weber State’s are. And both have FBS wins, so there isn’t that easy tiebreaker.

Probably the biggest move this week was putting Samford where it belongs — in a seeding spot. The  Bulldogs are the SoCon’s automatic-bid team and 9-0 against the FCS but do have a challenge ahead this weekend at home against Mercer. I bumped Incarnate Word out of the seeding, for now, but that can easily change next weekend.

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CONFERENCE AUTOMATIC BIDS

Of the conferences that will need to rely on their automatic bids to get their lone playoff spot, only St. Francis (Pa.) has clinched one (the NEC). There will be drama this weekend.

Before we get to the pile of spaghetti otherwise known as this one-year wonder, the ASUN-WAC, the key ones to peak first are the Big South, OVC, and Pioneer League.

BIG SOUTH – The Big South has seen Gardner-Webb creep up into the picture, and the Runnin’ Bulldogs haven’t won the conference since 2003, and GWU’s never been to the playoffs. They’d need to take care of North Carolina A&T at home this weekend — as both are 4-0 in the league. Personally? I think GWU has had a tougher schedule (3 FBS teams, two potential FCS playoff teams), even though the Aggies did make a trip to Fargo in FCS non-league play. We may have a 6-5 GWU in the playoffs.

OHIO VALLEY – SEMO (8-2) and UT Martin (6-4) do not play each other this year because of OVC scheduling OVC. They both have very winnable OVC games to close out this weekend and likely will finish conference play at 5-0, and if I’m reading this correctly, the whole damned thing will be settled by a coin flip. Lovely. Can’t the guys at least settle it against each other online on Madden or something?

PIONEER LEAGUE – Well, St. Thomas (MN) has dominated but is ineligible because it came up from Division III — which if you think of it is kind of crazy. If a team can make the jump two levels to FCS from Division III and go 9-1 overall and 7-0 in league play, don’t they deserve a reward? But I digress — that rule is actually quite customary when programs transition. That leaves Davidson, Butler, and Dayton.

There is schedule rotation in the Pioneer, so Davidson has to count its loss to St. Thomas and Butler plays ST this week, and Dayton? It doesn’t even play St. Thomas. The truth is, I think Davidson’s the strongest team here and will knock off Dayton at home, St. Thomas will knock off Butler — and Davidson will get the automatic bid and be in the playoffs the third straight time.

THE ASUN-WAC – First, take some Tylenol, then read this. I’m too cross-eyed to try to explain this — I only know coming into this weekend that teams like Abilene Christian, Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, and Eastern Kentucky are in the mix. But again, read the rules. I think when it all shakes out, EKU will be the most worthy but the Colonels could be left at home. Again, don’t forget your Tylenol.

Clear as mud? Don’t blame me, I’m just the messenger.

THE AT-LARGE UNIVERSE

Only the Big Sky, MVFC, CAA, and SoCon are really guaranteed at this time to get multiple teams into the playoffs (translation – via at-large berths). The Southland likely will get one (SE Louisiana?), and maybe even the Patriot League has a chance (Fordham). The other five FCS leagues? They very likely won’t get at-large bids, just the lone auto-bid.

Realistic chances?:

BIG SKY — Yes, as this story’s headline states — we could see six Big Sky Conference teams if many things around the country work out for schools like Montana, Idaho, and UC Davis (I’m already counting Sacramento State, Montana State, and Weber State as locks). Basically? Montana needs to not get absolutely blown out of the Gallatin Valley at rival MSU (personally, I think it’ll be a great game, but MSU will win at home — but a decent game locks in the Griz). Idaho and UC Davis must win.

The Vandals should have no problem with in-state rival Idaho State, but UC Davis gets a grueling challenge at Sacramento State — but then again, the Aggies have been tested many times this year already and have won five games in a row in convincing fashion. Six bids would mark the first time in Big Sky history it got that many, and the CAA and MVFC have only done it once apiece.

ALREADY IN (B’MAC’s OPINION): Sac St. (at large at least), Montana St. (at large), Weber State (at large)

POSSIBLE: Idaho, Montana, UC Davis

MVFC — This is a lot simpler to explain than the Big Sky. South Dakota State is already in, and who are we kidding? So is North Dakota State. Both will be seeds, too. The problem is, after that it drops off hard. That’s not the way it looked in mid-September with schools like Missouri State and Southern Illinois looking good, but things changed, Mox.

North Dakota has to go to the FargoDome this weekend, and Youngstown State really missed an opportunity when it lost to Missouri State this past weekend. There’s a scenario only two total MVFC teams could make the postseason, though three sounds more likely from the MVFC. The thing is, 7-4 this year may not be enough to guarantee you’re in from the Valley, as in many years past.

ALREADY IN (B’MAC’s OPINION): SDSU (locked-in – automatic bid), NDSU (at large)

POSSIBLE: North Dakota (eight wins locks in UND) and Youngstown State (getting its seventh win could mean a playoff berth)

CAA — This tightened up this past weekend. Well, somewhat. There are six teams in the mix to varying degrees, but there’s a good chance a 7-4 CAA team (or two) is going to be left at home, but an 8-3 should be an absolute lock to get into the playoffs from the CAA. Look for three to five teams depending on what happens around the country.

ALREADY IN (B’MAC’s OPINION): William & Mary (at large at least), Elon (at large), Richmond (at large)

POSSIBLE: Delaware (pretty likely – and FBS Navy win will be the poker chip), New Hampshire (good CAA standing, but sked rotation gave it a softer resume than many), Rhode Island (depends on a lot of things going its way nationally — hail mary chance)

SOCON — Samford and Furman have their strongest teams in years, and the conference may get three bids out of 2022 — with all three being strong enough to advance at least one round. It’s been a long time since something like that happened in this league. The SoCon hasn’t had three bids since 2017, and it has only had three or more two times since the FCS expanded to 24 teams after 2012 when Georgia Southern and Appalachian State split for the FBS.

ALREADY IN (B’MAC’s OPINION): Samford (locked-in – automatic bid), Furman (at large),

POSSIBLE: Chattanooga (lock in with a win this weekend at West Carolina), Mercer (needs to beat Samford or I doubt the Bears have a chance to get in — there are too many teams nationally with stronger potential 7-4 resumes).

Clear as granite? Don’t blame me, I’m just the guy who digs the trenches and tries to find a few gems in the rubble.

Questions? Debate? Hit BMac up on Twitter (@BrianMacWriter) and let’s put up our dukes, metaphorically.

REMEMBER: The FCS selection committee will ignore all FBS losses and all lower-division wins in its playoff consideration. So on the chart below, you’ll see the overall team record and the FCS record. Most of these teams have played FBS opponents this year — and eight have won against FBS teams (which is indicated in the chart below). BEATING an FBS team is a big poker chip come playoff time, and could be the ultimate tiebreaker when it’s not obvious any other way.

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THE HBCU AND IVY LEAGUE PREDICTIONS — COMING INTO FINAL WEEK

MEAC CHAMPION: North Carolina Central (8-2 with Tennessee Tech left) has won the MEAC and advances to the Celebration Bowl (see below)

SWAC SITUATION: Undefeated and nationally ranked Jackson State (10-0) has won the SWAC East championship. Prairie View needs only to knock off Mississippi Valley State (1-9) to win the SWAC West and join Jackson State in the conference championship.

SWAC TITLE GAME (Dec. 3, at Jackson State): Jackson State (SWAC East) vs. Prairie View A&M (SWAC West)

IVY LEAGUE CHAMPION: Looks like we may have one of those two-or-three team ties for the Ivy now, with Princeton falling to Yale. Penn and Harvard are also still in the mix. If Princeton beats Penn and Yale beats Harvard, Princeton and Yale share the title alone, but you know how crazy the Ivy League gets in the final week.

CELEBRATION BOWL (Dec. 17, Atlanta): Jackson State (SWAC) vs. North Carolina Central (MEAC)

FCS FOOTBALL POSTSEASON PREDICTION – WITH ONE WEEK LEFT

THE VOTE:  Note that the FCS  column denotes record vs. FCS (no FBS, no D2). That is what the playoff committee will look at — unless the FCS school has an FBS win or a lower-division loss).

UPDATE NOV. 13: If a school is bolded and has an (*) next to it? It has clinched an FCS Playoff berth with its conference’s automatic bid. 

ALSO: A (+) indicates the team has beaten a Group of Five Conference FBS team (EX: Weber State’s big win over Utah State), and a (&) indicates the team has beaten a Power Five Conference FBS team (EX: Southern Illinois’ win over the Big Ten’s Northwestern). FBS wins are key “poker chips” come postseason selection time.

Certain programs are ineligible for the FCS football postseason yet are playing in one of the playoff-bound conferences  (EXAMPLES: Pioneer League and NEC leaders St. Thomas (MN) and Merrimack respectively, as well as FBS transitional teams and WAC and ASUN leaders like Sam Houston and Jacksonville State). Also, the ASUN-WAC combination will award one automatic bid on behalf of two conferences that are still in the forming stages — and you can read more about how that unique setup works at NCAA.com, because it is confusing.

NOTE: Brian McLaughlin has been a voter on the STATS/PERFORM FCS football poll since 2016, and has written FCS postseason predictions since the same year. He also votes on the FCS postseason awards — the Walter Payton Award (top offensive player), the Buck Buchanan Award (top defensive player), the Jerry Rice Award (the top freshman in FCS football), and the Eddie Robinson Award (top coach that year).