Futures Watch: Will your favorite CFB team win 10 games this year?

I am taking a little break from conference winners to look at teams a little differently. 

Winning 10 or more regular-season games is an indicator of a pretty successful season, and some sportsbooks have posted odds on all the teams from the Power 5 Conferences and whether they can reach that lofty mark next season.

At the top of that list is Alabama at -2000. There is no value in taking that bet (unless you are going to go the other way — which is not offered) and there are four other programs where you are paying a premium for them to get to that mark. They are Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, and USC. The first four definitely make sense based on recent performance, but for USC that is a lot of faith in new head coach Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams.

To get a winner on this bet, you are looking for a team to basically go 10-2 or better (but at a price worth waiting for). In most cases, that probably means sweeping their nonconference games, otherwise, there is a lot of pressure for perfection in their league where opponents are often more talented and more familiar. 

The best example for next season might be Texas. They are +200 to get to 10 wins, but will be hosting Alabama in the second week of the season. Now, if you think they can win that game, you might just want to bet them to win it outright (as an underdog) and not even mess around with whether they could parlay that game into a special season of 10 wins or more. 

If you think they are going to lose (and I do) then the question becomes are they really going to lose just one other time against the rest of the Big 12 plus UTSA. That feels like a lot to ask of a team that is super inconsistent.

That is the way you have to approach this market and here is a list of the teams and payoffs that stood out the most on this prop.

Oklahoma State +300

If you believe in continuity then you have to believe the Cowboys are due for another strong season. Last year they won 12 games and they come into the season with the most experienced coach and quarterback in the conference — Mike Gundy and Spencer Sanders.

Fellow Big 12 programs like Iowa State and Oklahoma definitely look like they might take a step back this season and the nonconference schedule of Central Michigan, Arizona State, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff should not offer much resistance.  

They can drop two games in the league and still get there again

Minnesota +700

The Big Ten West is always the easier of the two divisions because you don't have to face Ohio State and Michigan every season. This season, the Golden Gophers do have to visit both Michigan State and Penn State, plus their annual date with Wisconsin is on the road, too. All they have to do is steal one of those games and I like their chances to get back to double-digit wins like they did a couple of years ago.

QB Tanner Morgan is still around and they brought back the offensive coordinator from when they had their best season in program history in 2019 (11-2). Minnesota won nine games a year ago and returns a fair amount from that team so getting to 10 is not really a stretch. 

The non-conference schedule is a joke with New Mexico State, Western Illinois, and Colorado. 

Kentucky +500

Winning 10 games while playing in the SEC is not an easy task, especially not at Kentucky. Nevertheless, that is what Mark Stoops did last season, the second time in the last four years...and I think he can do it again in 2022.

To get there, the Wildcats definitely need to sweep their non-conference slate of Miami (Ohio), Youngstown State, Northern Illinois, and Louisville, which are all at home. They could beat any of those teams anywhere, but playing at Kroger Field will help.

The SEC schedule is no picnic but I think they can win a swing game early at Florida. It is in the second week of the season and it will be the first SEC game for the new regime in the Swamp. After that, they can afford a split from visits to Ole Miss and Tennessee (assuming a home loss to Georgia). This is not an easy road but that is why they pay you the money. 

Quarterback Will Levis is getting first-round buzz for next year's draft, that should be good for something too. If you think he is a bust, though, this is not the bet for you.