The SMU Mustangs didn't make a great first impression in their season opener against the Nevada Wolf Pack. However, the Mustangs got right against Houston Christian and are now set to host the BYU Cougars.
As for the Cougars, we got to see a bit of why some are high on this offense. BYU ran through Southern Illinois and looks primed for its road test of the season
Let's dive into this one and get to my BYU vs. SMU prediction under the Friday night lights.
My BYU-SMU best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Friday, Sept. 6
7 p.m. ET
ESPN2
BYU Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 |
55.5 -110 / -110 |
+350 |
SMU Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 |
55.5 -110 / -110 |
-450 |
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
While many thought former Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon would win the starting job, it was the other transfer, Jake Retzlaff, who took nearly all the snaps in BYU's season opener.
Retzlaff showed why he won the job with his performance against Southern Illinois. He went 20-of-30 passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns. While SMU is a step up from Southern Illinois, the Cougars passing attack should really test their secondary.
The Mustangs' weakest defensive unit is their cornerback group, and they will have to contend with a dynamite receiver in Chase Roberts. Roberts was Retzlaff's main target, as he went for 108 yards on seven receptions.
However, the Cougars aren't one-dimensional. They have a pair of talented running backs in LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati. The duo split carries last week and both found the end zone, but Martin was slightly more efficient.
The Mustangs have been stout against running backs but struggled to contain a mobile quarterback in Nevada's Brendon Lewis. That may open up a package of plays for Bohanon, the more mobile quarterback, to be effective.
When it comes to the SMU offense, we don't quite know what to expect. Both quarterbacks, Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings, have seen significant snaps in each of the first two games.
They each bring a different dynamic, as Stone is your typical pocket passer, but Jennings can hurt opposing defenses with both his legs and his arm.
While it should be expected that we'll see more of Stone against a quality opponent, he'll be facing an experienced BYU secondary. This BYU secondary brought back all its starters and four of its top six tacklers.
This is going to be the game where SMU needs to prove it has the high-flying offense many were excited about when the Mustangs entered the ACC.
However, BYU can't be overlooked defensively as the Cougars have developed the talent needed to compete in a power conference, just like the Mustangs.
This spread has been fun to watch throughout the week. I grabbed the Cougars at +11.5 upon opening, as my projection has them as around six-point underdogs.
Since then, we've seen this spread rise to 12 and then crash down to as low as 10.5. Some buyers at 10.5 have brought it back to where it started.
However, we haven't seen a significant move since Wednesday, which tells me we have a good number.
The matchup supports this as well. SMU has to prove itself, and BYU can't be counted out.
Take the points.
Pick: BYU +11.5 (Play to 10.5)
Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
Date: | Friday, Sept. 6 |
Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Doug is a college football, college basketball and MLB contributor at the Action Network. He produces content centered around actionable advice with the goal of helping readers become better bettors. He studied journalism at Rutgers and has previously covered the New York Mets, Indianapolis Colts, and Mid-Atlantic region for Perfect Game.
Follow Doug Ziefel @DougZiefel on Twitter/X.
Our Bark Bets sports betting newsletter has the news, picks and analysis smart bettors are using to win. Sign up today!
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!