
The Huskers went into Happy Valley and left anything but happy.
The game peaked for Nebraska just three plays in when Emmett Johnson had a career-long run to put the Huskers in a first-and-10 at the Penn State 11, giving them a great chance to score. Four plays later, the Blackshirts’ defense was back on the field after Nebraska was stopped on fourth-and-1 at the two-yard line. By the final whistle, Penn State looked like the team that entered the season as a national title favorite, while Nebraska appeared to be a team still growing in year three of Matt Rhule.
A loss to Penn State wasn't surprising. I predicted Penn State would beat the Huskers. However, this was more than just a loss. Nebraska was outplayed in all three phases of the game. Even their special teams, which had been a strength all season, made sloppy mistakes like returning kicks from the end zone, committing penalties, and allowing a big run on a fake punt.
All of this resulted in Nebraska losing the field position battle against the Nittany Lions. Penn State held a four-yard advantage in average starting field position compared to Nebraska. It was the second-largest deficit Nebraska has faced in this metric in 2025, behind a -5.1 margin against Minnesota. In all three games where Nebraska lost the starting field position (the Michigan game was the third), the Huskers have lost.
Even after Nebraska crushed Akron 68-0, I had one main concern about that game – Nebraska struggled to score points near the end zone. It took less than four minutes for this problem to surface again against Penn State. On drives where the Huskers run at least one play within the opponent's 10-yard line, Nebraska averages five points per drive, ranking 93rd in the country. The Huskers’ inability to finish drives with touchdowns has been a weak point in 2025. 12.2% of their drives that reach within the opponent’s 10-yard line end in a turnover on downs, the 15th highest in the country.
In terms of net success rate*, this game was the second-worst of the Matt Rhule era, behind the 2023 Michigan game. The only other games where Nebraska lost the net success rate battle by more than 10% during Rhule’s tenure were the 2024 Indiana and Ohio State games. Despite their disappointing season, Penn State still has the talent of a playoff-caliber roster. This game further shows how far the Huskers are from having the players capable of competing for a playoff spot.
*Net success rate measures the percentage of a team’s plays that were successful minus the percentage of the opponent’s plays that were successful. This helps reduce the effect of randomness from big plays or turnovers.
While Nebraska played well enough to win at home in the USC and Michigan losses, it’s been crushed on the road by both Minnesota and Penn State. Both of those road losses set the record for the largest margin of defeat by a Matt Rhule team in year three or later. Although the Huskers have shown progress in 2025, this loss highlights how much more Nebraska needs to improve to become a top college football team again.
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