The Boise State Broncos take on the UTEP Miners. Check out our college football odds series for our Boise State UTEP prediction and pick.
Boise State is 2-1, but it’s certainly not an impressive 2-1 record for head coach Andy Avalos and his team. Boise State was mediocre in its two wins, a 31-14 decision over a not-very-good New Mexico team and a 30-7 win over FCS school Tennessee-Martin. Scoring just 31 and 30 against New Mexico and UT-Martin show how underdeveloped this offense is. Boise State teams under Chris Petersen and Bryan Harsin would slap 45, 50, or more points on weak opponents. BSU is not particularly close to meeting the standard set by the Broncos’ best teams and their Mountain West championship squads earlier this century. Avalos has a lot to figure out, and with Mountain West Conference games resuming for his team in October, this is a final chance to get his offense in order before the games get bigger later in the season. Pass protection is still a concern for this team. Boise State has had a hard time keeping its quarterbacks clean and unbothered over the past few years. Something needs to be done.
UTEP has had a very bumpy start to its season after making a bowl game last year. The Miners lost in their opener against North Texas. They were blasted by Oklahoma and then were hammered by the same New Mexico team which lost to Boise State. Scoring only 10 points against New Mexico was a shockingly bad performance for a team which was favored to beat the Lobos by two. The Miners, much like Boise State, have big problems on offense and have to go back to the drawing board for this game. They will be playing this game at home, but a partisan crowd in the Sun Bowl Stadium won’t mean a whole lot of this team and coaching staff can’t make relevant adjustments. UTEP has not been able to carry its 2021 momentum into 2022. This is a huge chance to recapture last season’s magic … but it’s going to take something special for the Miners to pull it off.
Here are the Boise State-UTEP NCAA football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Boise State-UTEP Odds
Boise State Broncos: -16.5 (-106)
UTEP Miners: +16.5 (-114)
Over: 45.5 (-112)
Under: 45.5 (-108)
Why Boise State Could Cover the Spread
UTEP lost by 17 to New Mexico in Albuquerque. Boise State defeated New Mexico by 17 in Albuquerque. Those performances reflect a 34-point difference relative to the one common opponent these two teams have played thus far this season. If UTEP could score only 10 points against New Mexico, Boise State should be able to limit UTEP to even fewer points. Boise State would not need a huge offensive game to cover the spread. The Broncos could win 24-6 or 24-3. Even if Boise State did allow 10 points, it could cover the spread by scoring the same number of points it did versus New Mexico: 31.
Why UTEP Could Cover the Spread
If Boise State managed just 30 points at home against an FCS school, Tennessee-Martin, it’s easy to see UTEP holding BSU to fewer than 30 points. If UTEP can limit Boise State to 26 or fewer points, it can score 10 and cover the spread. That’s very doable for the Miners, who will be fired up for this game on home turf.
Final Boise State-UTEP Prediction & Pick
Rather than pick a point-spread winner, the under looks like a great play. UTEP’s offense is feeble, Boise State’s offense is limited, and Boise State should be able to hold UTEP to 10 points or fewer. Boise State would need to score at least 36 against UTEP to go over the total in that case. Boise State scored only 30 versus Tennessee-Martin, and UTEP is better than UT-Martin.
Final Boise State-UTEP Prediction & Pick: Under 45.5
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