College football’s preseason top 25 rankings — based on ESPN’s SP+ model — are decidedly not inclusive. The only teams included in the ESPN’s preseason 25 are Power 4 teams (formerly Power 5 teams), with the exception of Notre Dame — sort of.
(Notre Dame is closely affiliated with the ACC. Five of the Irish’s games in 2024 are against ACC teams, pursuant to a contract between the university and the conference. And, Notre Dame’s sports programs, other than the football program and the hockey program, are official members of the ACC.)
Before focusing on the specific teams included on ESPN’s top 25 list, let’s look at the conferences that make up the Power 4.
The Power 4
“Power 4” refers to the four major college football conferences. Before conference realignment, we had the Power 5. Signing Day Sports elaborates on this re-designation:
“The Power 5, once a formidable quintet, now faces an undeniable power imbalance. With the Pac-12 losing its most prestigious members, including Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA, the remaining four conferences—SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12—have solidified their positions as the primary power players in college football. The question arises: Can the Pac-12 continue to claim its Power 5 status?
“In the world of college football, perception is often reality. While the Pac-12 may attempt to assert its position, it’s likely to face skepticism from voters who determine college football playoff rankings and Associated Press rankings. The reality is that the Pac-12’s influence and competitiveness may take a hit.
“With the Power 5 becoming a supposed “Power 4”, the remaining conferences stand to gain considerable influence, not only in terms of rankings but also in recruiting and resource allocation. Student-athletes eyeing collegiate football programs may now view the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 as even more attractive destinations. These conferences, with their heightened power, can offer better exposure, stronger NIL opportunities, and greater media deals.”
The Misnamed Conferences Comprising the Power 4
Each of the four conferences that make up the Power 4 is comprised of at least 16 teams. Here’s the breakdown:
All four of these conference names are now misnomers.
The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) includes teams from west of the Mississippi River, including SMU (located in Dallas, TX), as well as Cal and Stanford, which are located on the Pacific Coast.
Six out of the 16 teams of the Southeastern Conference (SEC) are located west of the Mississippi River. Those teams are Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M.
The Big Ten and Big 12 are no longer comprised of 10 and 12 teams, respectively. Yet, both conferences are, for now, retaining their traditional names.
The Pac-12 Conference, which did not have a misnomer for a name until the massive realignment in college football conferences, is now down to two teams — Oregon State and Washington State. It is unknown whether the conference will disband or seek to bring in other teams.
Now, let’s turn our focus to ESPN’s preseason top 25, giving consideration to how it was formulated and the revealing circumstance that all of the top 25 teams are in Power 4 conferences.
ESPN’s SP+ Model
ESPN’s “SP+ model” is an analytics based system, designed to pick games and rank teams. It was developed by ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly. The model is based on “returning production”, “recent recruiting”, and “recent history”. Linked here is an in-depth article concerning Connelly’s methodology.
College Football’s Top 25
Here is ESPN’s preseason top 25:
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Texas
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Penn State
- Ole Miss
- Notre Dame
- LSU
- Missouri
- Florida State
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Tennessee
- Clemson
- Utah
- Kansas State
- Arizona
- Oklahoma State
- Miami
- Iowa State
- USC
- Louisville
- Wisconsin
No Team From Outside the Power 4 Is In the Top 25 (Except for Outlier Notre Dame, Which is a Quasi-Member of the ACC)
This top 25 list is remarkable insofar as it is exclusively made up of Power 4 teams (with the noted caveat regarding Notre Dame).
The SEC leads the way with nine teams in the top 25. In second place is the Big Ten, with six teams. The Big 12 has five. And, the ACC has five, if Notre Dame is included, or four if the Irish are not counted.
Significantly, the top 10 is made up almost entirely of SEC teams (five) and Big Ten teams (four). Notre Dame is ranked No. 9.
Plainly, there are advantages associated with being a team in the Power 4.
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