The Billy Napier era at Florida might be over sooner than we expected.
According to a recent report from ESPN, Florida is under NCAA investigation due to the recruitment of quarterback Jalen Rashada.
Rashada was set to sign with Florida during the 2023 recruiting cycle, but a reported $13 million NIL deal fell apart. The former four-star recruit landed at Arizona State in the aftermath of the failed NIL deal with Florida.
The now defunct Gator Collective reportedly didn't honor the terms of Rashada's NIL deal, which is what led to the talented quarterback signing with Arizona State instead.
According to The Athletic, the NCAA is specifically looking into Florida staff member Marcus Castro-Walker and booster Hugh Hathcock.
From The Athletic: According to the two sources with knowledge of the investigation, the NCAA has inquired about the role of Florida staff member Marcus Castro-Walker, who is listed on the school’s website as director of player engagement and NIL, and booster Hugh Hathcock, who pledged $12.6 million to Florida’s athletic department in April 2022 and later launched the Gator Guard collective. Multiple Hathcock tweets posted right before Rashada’s commitment, hinting at a great day coming for Florida, also alluded to possible involvement in the deal.
It's not out of the question that Napier could get wrapped up in this investigation if it's revealed that he was involved in any way with Rashada's NIL deal.
And if that happens, Gators Online's Nick de la Torre thinks it's possible that Napier could face a situation where he could be fired "for cause" by Florida.
“It certainly smells like it could be a for-cause situation if your actions cause the program to go on probation,” said de la Torre during a recent interview with On3's Andy Staples.
Napier is 11-14 through his first two seasons at Florida (the same record that Derek Dooley had through his first two seasons at Tennessee). He's already firmly on the hot seat entering the 2024 season, so this isn't a situation where Florida is going to fight to keep Napier.
It's essentially the same situation that Tennessee was in with Jeremy Pruitt in early 2021 (and Pruitt, of course, was fired for cause).
If Napier faces a situation where he could be fired for cause, it seems likely that Florida would jump at the chance to move on from the embattled head coach while avoiding having to pay his reported $25 million buyout.
NCAA investigations take a while, so it's unlikely that anything happens before the 2024 season. But if the investigation is wrapped up by the end of the 2024 season, and if the Gators don't improve much on their 2023 season (they have one of the toughest schedules in the nation), then it's hard to see a scenario where Napier is the head coach in Gainesville in 2025.
(Florida's situation is a little different in the sense that Tennessee initiated an internal investigation, which made the situation with Pruitt move a little quicker, leading to a quick firing.)
Florida's in a tough place right now. Their coach is trending the wrong way, the NCAA is breathing down their necks, and the 2024 schedule is incredibly difficult.
It essentially makes the Vols' game against Florida in 2024 a must-win.
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