Oct 28, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (8) is sacked by Michigan State Spartans linebacker Jordan Hall (5) during the first quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

Final Predictions for Michigan State at Minnesota

Originally posted on Michigan State Spartans on SI
By Jacob Cotsonika | Last updated Oct 31, 2025 11:00 AM ET

Michigan State (3-5 overall, 0-5 Big Ten) is still seeking its first conference win of the year, with only four opportunities remaining. The Spartans have a good shot to do it against Minnesota (5-3, 3-2); MSU is only considered a slight underdog.

Still, it is a road game. Michigan State is 0-3 away from home this season and has dropped seven straight overall, which is part of the reason that Jonathan Smith might be coaching for his job this week. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 in Minneapolis.

With the game now so close, it's time for me to offer my prediction. Last week, before the Michigan game, I predicted a 31-21 UM win, and was as close as one can get without being exact. The Wolverines won, 31-20.

On this episode of the Michigan State Spartans Insider Podcast, I'll give it another shot. Anyone can watch the episode below, and a shorter, written version is also available.

Watch the MSU Spartans Insider Podcast here:

Written Version

When Michigan State has the Ball

MSU's offense has been floundering recently. Save some last-minute, garbage-time scores against Indiana and Michigan, the Spartans have basically scored 13, 10, and 13 points during their last three games.

Minnesota is not the type of defense that is going to allow a struggling offense to surge against it. Sure, the Golden Gophers did surrender 41 to Iowa of all teams, but the Hawkeyes are scoring more points than Michigan State is this season.

Statistically, the Gophers have had an above-average defense, especially at home. Minnesota is 15th nationally and sixth in the Big Ten in total defense. In Minneapolis, it has only given up 12.8 points per game, compared to 36.7 on the road.

MSU's offense has been underwhelming pretty much all year. This probably is not the week it turns things around.

When Minnesota has the Ball

If Michigan State were to win this game, it would probably be because the defense took a step forward. That side of the ball kept the Spartans in the game for a while, and now will face a Minnesota offense that is 121st in yardage and 96th in scoring.

Against FBS teams, the Golden Gophers are scoring a mere 17.9 points per contest. The thing is that MSU is giving up 33.7 points per game against that same caliber of opponent.

Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who used to coach at Minnesota, made the move from the booth to the field during the UM game, and that seemed to energize things a bit.

I think that momentum does carry over a bit for Michigan State's defense, but it will not be enough to get a victory.