Larsen’s Week 10 Early College Football Leans

I mentioned six games in my article last week and they ended up going 3-2-1 (a winning record), and could’ve been better if TCU didn’t score at the last second. But we made money. I like a lot of underdogs this week, but here’s what I’ve already bet for Week 10…

*All rankings are from AP Poll*

2022 SportsTalkATL Locks record: 75-41-4 (62.5% wins)

Week 9: 4-3-1

Missouri +2.5 vs Kentucky

Is Missouri a wagon? Some are saying so after the Tigers have covered four of their last five. This jumps off the page to me as a team playing very well recently (and at home) versus a team in free fall. Kentucky has lost three of their last four games and are coming off that blowout in Knoxville. This could be a get-right game for the Cats, but that might be next week when they host Vanderbilt.

Not to mention, these games have been close the last few years. Looking at the last five matchups, three have been decided by less than a touchdown, and another game was decided by ten points. The last time they met in Columbia, Missouri came out on top.

Missouri is 4-4, but let’s look at their losses. They got blown out at Kansas State earlier in the season, but that loss looks much better now. They lost in Jordan-Hare in a game they blew multiple times and ended up losing 17-14 in overtime. (Seriously, go watch the highlights. It is brutal.) Then they almost beat Georgia in a game they dominated for about three and a half quarters. They outplayed Florida in the Swamp and lost by seven, but it was a winnable game. Then they beat Vandy and South Carolina.

The point is, they’re playing good football right now. I expect a spirited effort from the home team as they look for bowl eligibility. The public likes the Wildcats early in the week, despite the fact that they are dealing with some injuries. 69% of the tickets and 95% of the money is coming in on Kentucky. If this line was somewhere around Kentucky -7, where I expected it to be, then I wouldn’t be as intrigued. But this short spread catches my eye. I’ll grab the points with Mizzou.

James Madison +9.5 @ Louisville

I just really don’t like the spot for Louisville. They had a great win against a top ten team last week, but that game was close until Wake had six third quarter turnovers. Six! And the following week Louisville takes the trip to Clemson. What a huge game! But in between they have tiny little James Madison.

The Dukes have played some good football this season, but are coming off two straight losses after a 5-0 start. They lost at Georgia Southern by seven, then lost to Marshall by two touchdowns. The Dukes’ quarterback is questionable for this game, which is big news, but all signs point to him playing. And after getting refreshed on their bye week, they now travel to Louisville. I’m expecting for JMU to play with pride.

Look for the Cards to take it easy for bit, with some still celebrating from the Wake Forest win and others preparing for a showdown with Clemson. This line has dropped to Louisville -7.5 due to some public presence on JMU (which surprises me). We will see if the sharps move this line any farther.

Georgia Southern +5 vs South Alabama

South Alabama have been a Group of 5 darling for bettors this season, but haven’t been performing well as of late. They have been favored in their each of their last four games, going 1-3 ATS with the one win coming against a lousy Arkansas State team. They failed to cover in a close win at Louisiana, then won by one score at UL-Monroe in a game where they were 17-point favorites. They lost at Troy the following week before blowing out Arkansas State. This is a Jaguars team that, for the most part, is playing down to the level of their competition. Now they travel to Statesboro to face Georgia Southern who is finding their form.

The Eagles went to Coastal Carolina and took them down to the wire in early October and had an impressive win against James Madison in a game that saw them as 13-point underdogs. Two weeks ago, they went to Old Dominion and won, then got to rest and recover on their bye week. This a very healthy Georgia Southern team that is playing good football, and they haven’t lost at home this season. The public has been betting South Alabama early in the week (62% tickets, 77% money), however the line has moved from USA -5.5 to USA -3.5. The sharps like the Eagles in this spot as well. I’ll take the points in a game Georgia Southern probably wins outright.

Other games I’m monitoring

Memphis +4 vs #25 UCF

This totally depends on the status of UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee, who took a nasty concussion hit last week and did not return. After he went out, the UCF offense looked totally different and Memphis should be able to move the ball on the UCF secondary. With UCF possibly looking towards the following week’s big matchup against Tulane, I might be looking to take the Tigers here.

#13 Kansas St +3 vs Texas

I’m really worried this is going to be a square pick, but there is just no way K State should be catching points at home. This line has moved all over the place, so I’m going to wait for the market to chill out a little bit, but for now I like the Wildcats at home.

Kansas +3 vs #18 Oklahoma St

Let’s stay in Kansas and fade Oklahoma State again. Is it possible the Pokes are still being overvalued? Kansas is off a bye and will be able to pass on Oklahoma State’s swiss cheese defense. The public loves the Cowboys here, and the sharps like the Jayhawks. I expect this line to move in Kansas’ favor.