Golf best bets: 3 props for the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
The PGA Tour kicks off the Florida Swing this week with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. PGA National is a water-heavy golf course that can eat players alive if they're not careful, so we're targeting elite ball-strikers and fading inaccurate golfers with our three favorite props.
Jake Knapp to miss the cut (+126 FanDuel)
We were on Jake Knapp at 40/1 to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta, but we have no problem fading him after the emotional high of his first PGA Tour victory.
Vidanta Vallarta was a perfect golf course for Knapp because it's extremely long and doesn't have much trouble off the tee. The big-hitting rookie was spraying his driver miles wide of the fairway during his final round on Sunday, but those misses ended up on grass a large majority of the time. He was able to save par after par despite being out of position all day, but that's not possible at PGA National.
Jake Knapp went from nightclub bouncer to $1.4 million PGA Tour winner
Water is in play on 15 of the 18 holes at PGA National, so Knapp won't be able to get away with wayward drives or approach shots this week. The 29-year-old ranks 161st on the PGA Tour this season in driving accuracy. This golf course is not a good fit for Knapp's game, and it's fair to assume he won't be as locked in coming off a week of celebration.
Sungjae Im > Min Woo Lee (-110 FD)
This is a similar handicap to the Knapp selection. Min Woo Lee is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour. He ranks 10th on Tour in driving distance but 177th in driving accuracy. He also ranks 176th in strokes gained: approach, so he doesn't fit the bill for PGA National as an accurate ball striker.
Sungjae Im, on the other hand, is incredibly accurate off the tee and typically strong with his irons. The South Korean is in a mini-slump with his approach play right now, but he loves playing in Florida and won this event in 2020. We'll trust the proven performer at PGA National over the bomber who doesn't quite fit this course.
Corey Conners top-20 finish (+190 FD)
The way to attack PGA National is to hit it straight off the tee, lay up with less than driver when the situation calls for it and gain strokes with your irons. Hear that? That's Corey Conners's music.
Conners is a ball-striking expert who thrives on shorter golf courses. He ranks 12th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off the tee, 24th in driving accuracy and third in greens in regulation percentage. The issue this season has been his putter. Conners has lost strokes on the greens in seven of his last eight starts, but a return to Florida Bermuda grass might be exactly what he needs to start holing putts.
The Canadian has gained strokes putting in four of his last six starts on the Florida Swing. If Conners just has a mediocre putting week, his ball striking should carry him to a top-20 finish.
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