U.S. Open best bets: How to bet Scottie Scheffler (besides to win)
If you're reading this, you're likely interested in betting on Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open this week. First off, I can't blame you. I had the same thought myself.
Scheffler hasn't finished worse than T12 in a tournament since October. He has two wins and 10 top-five finishes in 16 starts over that span.
This season, Scheffler ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off the tee, No. 1 in strokes gained: approach, and No. 6 in strokes gained: around the green. In terms of SG: tee to green, Scheffler is gaining 0.928 strokes per round more than the next-best player (Jon Rahm). The difference between Scheffler and Rahm is the same difference between Rahm and the 26th-best player in SG: TTG.
Okay, sorry about getting all golf nerdy there. In simpler terms, Scheffler is hitting the ball better — like, way better — than Tiger Woods in his prime. It's absolutely ludicrous how well he's striking it right now.
But wait. If that's true, why doesn't he have more than two wins this season? Well, there's a little something called a putter in golf, and Scheffler is completely lost with that club. The American ranks 148th on Tour in SG: putting this season. Over his last two starts, Scheffler lost nearly 13 total strokes on the greens alone. And he finished third in both events!
Essentially, if Scheffler brings his pristine ball striking to Los Angeles Country Club and putts just below field average, he's going to win the U.S. Open. That's why he's a heavy +600 favorite.
I would love to bet Scheffler to win this tournament. His putting has to turn around eventually, right? But I can't take a +600 favorite at a U.S. Open when he's missing 10-footers every hole. What I am interested in is monitoring the live odds for a price better than 15/1. All we need is a few players to go low on Thursday and for Scheffler to start slow out of the gates. Keep an eye on those live outright odds and be ready to fire.
As for a pre-tournament bet, I'll be betting Scheffler to finish inside the top five at +135 odds. His floor is so incredibly high because of his ability to hit long, straight drives, hit more greens than the rest of the field, and chip it close from awkward lies.
He just needs the putter to cooperate for a few rounds in a row, but let's hope that clicks later in the week so we can get a juicy outright price on him before then.
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