Kentucky Derby best bets: A look at the rest of the field, now that Forte is out
The first Saturday in May clearly calls for, as the Rolling Stones sang in Dead
Flowers, “making bets on Kentucky Derby day.” The iconic horse race will be
run at Louisville’s Churchill Downs for the 149th consecutive year.
But even the Stones know you can't always get what you want. After three
scratches on Thursday and another Friday morning — plus the scratching of Derby favorite Forte on Saturday morning — the field of three-year-olds now
stands at 18.
With so many thoroughbreds going the mile-and-a-quarter distance for the first time, deciphering how the Derby will play out is incredibly challenging. Last year’s race saw Rich Strike draw into the field from the also-eligible list on the day before and then spring a monumental upset at 80-1 odds. The payouts are unlikely to be as lucrative in this edition, but strong betting consideration should be given to the following horses:
UPDATE: Forte, the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, was scratched from the race on Saturday morning after suffering a bruised foot.
The formidable favorite: No. 15 Forte (3-1 on the Friday morning line)
The
winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, Forte was trying to join Street
Sense (2006) and Nyquist (2015) as the only horses that went on to capture the
Derby. Though he had earned victories in each of his two races since, his Beyer
Speed Figures had dipped from 100 to 98 to 95. It would be fair to wonder if he has
leveled off, but we won't know because Forte has been scratched.
The classy competitor: No. 14 Angel of Empire (8-1)
The speed numbers are trending in the opposite direction for Angel of Empire, who most recently posted a 94 while romping in the Arkansas Derby. With the exception of his one race on turf last year, he has improved in every start and delivered four wins. Jockey Flavien Prat has also fared well in his five previous Kentucky Derbys, finishing in the money four times.
The unprecedented upsetter: No. 17 Derma Sotogake (10-1)
No international horse has ever won the Derby, but Derma Sotogake has a legitimate chance to become the first. The Japanese colt turned in a visually impressive performance in the UAE Derby, and his speed figure for that race would’ve been higher than those of Saturday’s other entrants. Jockey Christophe Lemaire had the mount that day and will try to make history in his second Kentucky Derby.
The board-hitting bomb: No. 11 Disarm (30-1)
Although he hasn’t been victorious in any of his three races this year (two second-place finishes and a third), Disarm always gained ground and could be forgiven for not catching the winner. Reports on his training at Churchill indicate that he’s sharp and looking fantastic. He’ll need to take another step forward in the Derby, but getting Joel Rosario back as his jockey helps.
Wagering wisdom
Since not much separates the horses in this field, a case can be made for several others. No. 3 Two Phil’s, No. 5 Tapit Trice, and No. 22 Mandarin Hero hold the most appeal, and any combination of the seven mentioned could be used on exacta and trifecta tickets. One potential betting strategy is trying to beat the favored Forte by keying Angel of Empire and Derma Sotogake on top in your exotics.
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