Five reasons the Jays will win the AL East (despite the run diff doubters)

Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay, who recently pointed to baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem, argued the Jays shouldn’t be this good.

He’s not alone. With a modest +17 run differential, compared to the Yankees’ +111, and +61 from both the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, critics have questioned whether Toronto really belongs in first place.

But run differential doesn’t win divisions. Winning series does.

And right now, the Jays are doing exactly that — stacking gritty wins, getting unexpected contributions and playing some of their best baseball in years.

Here are five reasons they’re built to take the AL East and silence the skeptics.

1. They don't strike out

The Blue Jays don’t just make contact — they make pitchers work.

Toronto leads the AL and MLB in both fewest total strikeouts (649) and lowest strikeout rate (17.6%). That’s not just a nice stat, it’s a mindset. They grind out at-bats, spoil pitches, and force starters into deep counts.

By contrast, the Yankees, despite their gaudy run differential, strike out nearly nine times per game with a strikeout rate of 22.9%. The Jays? Just 6.7 strikeouts per game.

In a division where pitching staffs are elite and every plate appearance matters, Toronto’s discipline gives them an edge few are talking about.

2. The Dome is home to wins

At 32–16, the Blue Jays have the best home winning percentage in the AL (.667): better than the Yankees (61.2%), Red Sox (61.5%), Houston Astros (63.5%), and Detroit Tigers (64%).

Yes, the AL East is stacked with strong home teams. But none of them have been tougher to beat at home than Toronto. The Rogers Centre has become a fortress, fueled by timely hitting, elite crowd energy, and a lineup that thrives under the dome.

The Jays don’t just play better at home — they dominate. This included their first four-game sweep at home against the Yankees in club history.

3. Quietly, one of MLB’s best offenses

The Jays are tied for the AL/MLB lead in batting average at .258, right alongside the Astros and Rays. Even without gaudy blowout wins, they’re getting on base, moving runners, and manufacturing runs night after night.

Catcher  Alejandro Kirk  and outfielder  George Springer  are bouncing back. Third baseman  Addison Barger  is breaking out. Infielder  Ernie Clement  keeps doing the little things right. 

And we haven’t even mentioned shortstop  Bo Bichette  or first baseman  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , both of whom are still capable of carrying this team down the stretch.

This offense may not be flashy, but it’s deep, balanced and dependable.

4. Unexpected bullpen boost

Toronto still needs deadline arms, but internal surprises are keeping them afloat.  Brendon Little  (19 holds, 2.03 ERA), Braydon Fisher (3–0, 2.22 ERA) and starter/reliever  Eric Lauer  (4–2, 2.78 ERA) have stepped up, delivering crucial innings and helping the Jays win close games without overtaxing the core.

5. Expect an aggressive front office

The Jays went all-in in 2015, and don’t be surprised if it happens again. With needs at third, in the rotation, and bullpen, expect bold deadline moves. A deal for someone like starters Zac Gallen or Jacob deGrom,  or third baseman Eugenio Suárez could be the final push toward October glory.