With still weeks away from the 2024 regular season as Spring Training progresses along, the Tampa Bay Rays are making preparations to have another successful year in what looks to be a highly competitive AL East.
Those familiar with Rays baseball know the DNA of this franchise up to this point. They’re a small-market team that spends like one but still finds ways to win ball games. They constantly rely on their seemingly never-ending farm system that continues to find talent, especially starting pitchers. Most of these players are mostly unknown to the majority of fans, and that’s exactly what they’ll be again in 2024.
The Rays lost a lot when their season came to a crashing halt with their second consecutive Wild Card round exit, getting swept both times. Names that began to earn recognition in the league, like pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who was traded to the Dodgers, or shortstop Wander Franco, whose career is likely over after recent legal troubles, will be missing this season.
Their other losses are piling up due to injuries, specifically to their pitching rotation, which will become an issue this season as well due to the massive carryover. Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs will all miss large chunks of the season, if not all, due to recovering from elbow surgeries.
Can this year’s Rays team overcome these detriments when much of the division has improved? Who knows exactly what the Rays organization has up their sleeves, or better yet, in their farm system. They’ve figured out how to manipulate the game well enough to work for them and use what seems like an endless stream of unknown talent to at least get them to the postseason for the last five seasons. But can they make it six? Let’s get into some Rays bold predictions for 2024.
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The Rays won’t finish in the top 5 in starting rotation ERA this season
No matter what happens to this team, they always seem to find pitchers, whether that’s in the starting rotation or in the bullpen. But, as mentioned, this team has a lot to overcome in pitching this season with three significant injuries to major guys. That began to show last year as the season went on.
Before the All-Star break, the Rays were 35-19 with the top starting rotation ERA in the league at 3.61. But in the second half, they dropped to 12th with a 4.30, going 20-20, per FanGraphs.
This team relies a lot on their dominating pitching to get them to the postseason, particularly in a division with a lot of sluggers. While the Rays seem to have a cupboard full of pitchers, overcoming the losses of four starters is a lot to ask.
Junior Caminero won’t be called up until well after the All-Star break
Like with a lot of young talent, most fans can’t wait to see the Rays No. 1 prospect and the No. 4 overall in baseball according to MLB Pipeline be called back up to the majors. But that might be a while.
The right-handed hitter was optioned back to the minors earlier this year so the main starters could get more major league at-bats before spring training concludes in two weeks.
It wasn’t a performance issue with Caminero; it was because they didn’t want to rush him up to the majors too quickly. That, and they don’t really have a spot for the 20-year-old currently. The infield is covered up to this point just before the 2024 Opening Day. Isaac Paredes is handling third, which is where Caminero is best suited. Brandon Lowe is finally healthy over at second base. And no one is taking Yandy Diaz off first base.
Of course, there’s always shortstop, where Caminero has played. As we all know, that spot used to be held by Franco, but for the meantime, it will be taken over by José Caballero, who the Rays acquired from the Mariners.
Rays finish third in AL East and barely miss playoffs, winning 87 games
Coming off 99 wins last year was impressive, though it came off a really hot start where they won their first 13 games. They also were in first place in their division for a total of 99 days last season before eventually losing it to the Orioles.
There’s still a lot to like about the 2024 Rays — even if they do have just one catcher on the 40-man roster in Rene’ Pinto. They still have plenty of talent in the majors with more likely to be called up from the minors at some point this season. But it all goes back to the losses they’ve accrued in the area of exceptional talent they had from last season. Again, those concerns come mostly from the starting rotation (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) that finished with a combined 4.10 ERA, with Bradley — who won’t be available on Opening Day — and Pepiot only having 31 starts between them.
The offense, on the other hand, has a lot of returning production — Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, and others — that finished in the top 5 in most offensive categories last season. They’ll go mostly how Diaz goes, however, as he’s one of the best hitters in the game.
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