AL Cy Young Award futures: Which pitchers deliver the most value?
New York Yankee ace Gerrit Cole has been one of the best pitchers in the majors for a decade and finally won the Cy Young with the Yankees last season. It was not his best year, but after five top-four finishes it was good enough to get him the award and he is the frontrunner coming into this season (+500). And for good reason, he is showing no signs of slowing and the AL is lacking other elite hurlers right now. Or at least lacking ones without question marks.
Here is a look at the pitchers who deliver the best value this season.
American League Cy Young Futures
Kevin Gausman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays +700
Gausman was a top prospect who took a while to figure it all out. In two seasons in Toronto, he has enjoyed a lot of success and I think in this second year with the new rules he will be even more comfortable. He was third in the AL in Cy Young voting last season even though he led the league in Ks. With a few more victories he can jump even higher, perhaps all the way to the top. Only Cole is ahead of him on the odds table.
Corbin Burnes, SP, Baltimore Orioles +1000
I referenced Burnes in the NL Cy Young preview because he is one of several winners who have now switched leagues. The numbers are very good, even if they might be trending in the wrong direction. The best thing he has going for him is a team that should help him win a lot of games, and he gets a chance to face hitters that are not as familiar with him. When your stuff is good that makes it even better. He has been 12-2 in Interleague play for his career. A hot start might have everyone playing catchup.
Luis Castillo, SP, Seattle Mariners +1300
Castillo has been quietly one of the more dominant pitchers in the game over the last five years. He set a career-high in innings last season and there are no restraints on the righty. Seattle has question marks about its general strategy, but not about its pitching, beginning with this guy. I fully expect Castillo to win 15 games with 200 innings and over 200 strikeouts. The only pitcher to hit all those benchmarks last season? Cole, who won the award.
Dylan Cease, SP, Chicago White Sox +2500
The rumors are that Cease will be traded sometime during spring training. That might make him a steal at this current price as nobody is expecting him to get dealt to the Pirates or A's. Almost anywhere he goes would be a better situation than Chicago right now. Cease is still in his prime and three straight seasons with more than 200 strikeouts have shown us his ability to dominate. Last season got off the rails but a couple of years ago he was second in the voting. He is worth a gamble.
Cole Ragans, SP, Kansas City Royals, +2800
The projection systems do not know what to make of Ragans' success after getting acquired by the Royals last season. At this price point you are talking about long shots and the story of the Royals being more competitive is legit, I think. The key for Ragans is will he be dominant enough to turn in a season like we have seen from recent winners like Blake Snell, or Burnes, which are not very innings-heavy. It will be his first full season in the big leagues.
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