AL East preview: Yankees should rise in powerhouse division
The AL East may be the best division in the majors, with four teams having a legitimate chance at a playoff berth.
Per FanGraphs, the Yankees, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays have a 48% chance or greater of reaching the postseason, a mark no other division can approach. Even the Red Sox, the last-place team in the FansGraphs projections, have a 25.8% chance at making the playoffs.
Here's how we think the AL East will shake out. (Last season's record and standing are in parentheses.)
1. New York Yankees (82-80, fourth)
The Yankees had one of their better offseasons in recent history, including the addition of left fielder Juan Soto as part of a complete makeover of their outfield.
Outfielder Trent Grisham, acquired as part of the Soto deal with San Diego, and right fielder Alex Verdugo provide the Yankees with far more depth than they have had in recent years. Plus, the addition of Marcus Stroman gives New York another dependable starter in the rotation.
The Yankees have questions, especially with starters Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, but they have improved enough to be favorites in the division.
2. Baltimore Orioles (101-61, first)
The Orioles would have been the favorites until a brutal series of injuries hit their rotation.
Baltimore lost starter Kyle Bradish to a sprained UCL and John Means is a month behind in his throwing program. Bradish, attempting to use rest and rehab to return this year, is throwing pain-free from flat ground but still has a long way to go.
Closer Felix Bautista, lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery, was replaced by Craig Kimbrel, a drastic downgrade in the ninth inning. Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes, acquired to be the top-of-the-rotation arm, may be one-and-done after 2024 with the Orioles.
The lineup is good enough to make up for the pitching issues and the Orioles should be a playoff team, but a step back is to be expected.
3. Tampa Bay Rays (99-63, 2nd in AL East)
At some point, the Rays' holes will catch up with them.
Shortstop Wander Franco was a key part of the offense but may never return to the majors because of legal issues. The projected bottom third of the lineup — center fielder Jose Siri, presumed starting shortstop Jose Caballero and catcher Rene Pinto — does not have a track record of offensive success.
Zach Eflin (16-8, 3.50 ERA in 2023) probably is the team's most accomplished starting pitcher. The Rays also have a strong bullpen and a knack for overachieving, so they should be in the playoff hunt again.
4. Toronto Blue Jays (89-73, third)
The Blue Jays have everything they need to contend for the AL East title, including plenty of firepower, a deep rotation and a strong bullpen. It would be easy to see the Blue Jays not only reach the postseason but contend for the division.
However, the Blue Jays have questions at second and third, where utility men may be forced to start. The Blue Jays also have injury and age concerns.
As talented of a roster as Toronto may have, it could easily fall apart.
5. Boston Red Sox (78-84, last)
The Red Sox's offseason was confusing. Ownership claimed to be "full throttle" in terms of spending, but it refused to open the checkbook. An admission that ownership had been neglecting the team brought former Boston GM Theo Epstein aboard as a part-owner, but nothing changed.
The Red Sox's biggest offseason acquisition, starter Lucas Giolito, may be lost for 2024 and into 2025. Instead, the team may be looking ahead to 2025, especially with the signing of closer Liam Hendriks and the extension of young starting pitcher Brayan Bello.
The future may be bright in Boston, but the 2024 season is not.
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