Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced on Tuesday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). There’s been no setback for Verlander after he initially reported some soreness in his right shoulder, Espada emphasized, but the 41-year-old will need more time to get ramped up for the season. Espada added that Verlander is “doing really well” in his progression, but the team wants to be “smart” rather than rush the three-time Cy Young winner back for the Opening Day nod.
Verlander has tossed multiple bullpen sessions since initially revealing he was behind schedule due to his right shoulder — including one as recent as Sunday. Espada didn’t place a firm timeline on Verlander’s return, but there’s been no indication from the team or the player himself that any of his throwing sessions have gone poorly thus far. That’s all reason for cautious optimism and hope for a short-term IL stint that sees Verlander miss only a few starts.
Fans might be tempted to draw some parallels between the Verlander news and the Kendall Graveman injury that prompted the team’s signing of Josh Hader — but a short-term absence for Verlander doesn’t seem likely to push the ’Stros to one of the high-profile arms remaining on the market. Signing Hader cost the Astros a draft pick but only a 20% tax (about $3.8M overall), and that move was made largely in response to a season-ending injury. Verlander’s case is quite different regarding his recovery timetable and the associated tax ramifications.
The Astros are already well into luxury-tax territory thanks to that Hader deal and are about $1.3M from crossing into the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. Signing either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would require incurring relatively substantial taxes and, quite likely, crossing into the third tier of penalty and having their top pick in the draft pushed back 10 places. Houston will be taxed at that same 20% clip on the next $1.3M added to the payroll, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20M and a 62.5% tax on the next $20M spent. For instance, a $25M AAV deal would come with $8.9725M of taxes. A $30M AAV deal would trigger about $12.1M of taxes. Adding anything more than $21-22M in terms of AAV would also be enough to that hit to their top pick in the draft, and Snell in particular would cost Houston their third-round pick. Like Hader, he rejected a qualifying offer.
Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on, not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans. He also has a vesting $35M player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5M of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.
It’s unclear how long Verlander will be sidelined, but his season-opening IL stint paves the way for lefty Framber Valdez to make his second straight Opening Day start. He’d presumably be followed by a combination of right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France if he’s healthy.
Like Verlander, France has been slowed by some shoulder troubles this spring, although all reports out of Astros camp on his progress have been encouraging. The team still needs to indicate that Opening Day is in jeopardy for France. If he’s also sidelined, he’d join Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia as Houston starters on the injured list. In that scenario, right-handers Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak would likely be ticketed for the fifth spot on the staff.
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