Astros third baseman Alex Bregman spoke to reporters, including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Saturday afternoon and revealed that his camp has not yet received an extension offer from the Astros and that he does not expect to receive one before Opening Day this week. Bregman made clear, however, that he would be willing to negotiate during the season if the club were to approach him with an offer.
That Houston hasn’t made an offer to Bregman at this point is something of a surprise, given comments from both club owner Jim Crane and GM Dana Brown earlier this winter indicated that the club has every intention of making Bregman an offer before he hits free agency this November. That Bregman is willing to negotiate in-season keeps the door to the sides making progress on extension talks at some point this season open, though spring training is generally regarded by both players and club officials as the ideal time for contract negotiations, lest they become a distraction during the season.
Brown has long been candid about his desire to lock up the club’s core players long term and since then has successfully extended the contracts of both right-hander Cristian Javier and more recently, second baseman and franchise face Jose Altuve. The club reportedly explored extensions with both southpaw Framber Valdez and outfielder Kyle Tucker last offseason along with Javier, though those talks ultimately did not result in a deal. This winter, club officials have outwardly interest in retaining Bregman long-term in their public comments, with Brown even indicating last month that the club plans to reopen negotiations with Tucker but will likely prioritize Bregman for the time being.
Despite those comments indicating the club hopes to retain Bregman long-term, the club appeared to prioritize extending Altuve over Bregman this winter with reports indicating that the Astros were skeptical of their chances regarding a deal with Bregman. Crane’s comments on the matter earlier this winter even acknowledged this, as the owner admitted that Bregman’s age makes him “a little different circumstance” to Altuve, who would have hit free agency prior to his age-35 season in contrast to Bregman, who will play the 2025 season at just 31 years old.
If the Astros are concerned about they’re ability to make an offer Bregman would consider accepting, they’re somewhat justified in their concerns. Third basemen of a similar caliber to Bregman have routinely found offers north of $200M either in free agency or via extensions, as demonstrated by deals inked by players such as Austin Riley, Rafael Devers and Anthony Rendon. By contrast, Marcus Semien’s seven-year $175M pact with the Rangers during the 2021-22 offseason is the high-water mark for second basemen in free agency. That wasn’t far off from where they were ultimately willing to go for Altuve, who signed a five-year, $125M extension last month.
Even if Bregman was willing to accept a deal with a similar AAV to Altuve’s recent extension, the disparity between their respective ages presents another hurdle. Six-plus-year deals for infielders in their early thirties have become commonplace in recent years, as demonstrated by pacts such as those signed by Semien, Rendon, Kris Bryant and even D.J. LeMahieu in recent years. It would hardly be a shock if Bregman was looking for a similar length and the six-year, $115M extension the club signed Yordan Alvarez to represents the only pact longer than five years in franchise history. A six- or seven-year deal worth $25M or more, as Bregman might require to forgo free agency, would be a major departure from the club’s previous way of doing business.
On the other hand, the club figures to see more than $100M come off the books during the coming winter, per RosterResource. Much of that money figures to go to arbitration-level players such as Tucker and Valdez, both of whom are set to earn eight-figure salaries in their final trip through arbitration next year, though even after accounting for that its certainly feasible the club could afford to offer Bregman a hefty deal. It’s also worth noting that Houston has expressed a new willingness to flex their financial muscle this winter. The club is set to pay into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history this year, and the club’s five-year deal with ace closer Josh Hader is the sort of top-of-the-market expenditure the club has tended to shy away from under Crane’s ownership. If these changes are a sign of a new approach, rather than an all-in effort to contend while the club’s current core remain under control, it’s certainly feasible that the club could work out a deal to retain Bregman at some point, whether that be during the season or after he hits free agency in the fall.
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