On a night that included the first perfect game since Felix Hernandez pitched one in 2012, our baseball bets were mostly winners. After another 4-2 day, we now sit at 11-6 on the week and are up 3.85 units. We look to continue our streak with another successful day. It’s Thursday so the slate of games is light, but there are still some plays that stick out.
Baseball Bets for June 29th
Headliner: Padres @ Pirates
Our first game of the day is one in which the Pittsburgh Pirates look to complete the sweep of the San Diego Padres. The Padres are looking to turn their season around and are sending Joe Musgrove to the mound. Musgrove has a 3.88 ERA in 11 starts and 60.1 innings this season. Over his last seven starts, however, he carries a 2.61 ERA in 41.1 innings. Musgrove has pitched better on the road than at home this season. In four road starts, he has a 3.13 ERA across 23 innings. His WHIP has been a little high across the board, however, with his season total sitting at 1.26.
The Pirates are countering with Luis Ortiz. The young righty comes into today’s start with a 3.74 ERA across nine outings and 45.2 innings pitched. Over his last seven games (he made one relief appearance in that stretch), he has pitched to an ERA of 3.35 over 37.2 innings. While he has performed better at home, as shown by his 3.20 ERA in 19.2 innings, he does not limit baserunners well. His home WHIP is 1.53 while his season WHIP sits at 1.62. That’s more than one and a half baserunners an inning! Even with the struggles the Padres are having, allowing almost two runners an inning does not lead to winning baseball. His success thus far this season has seemingly been luck.
The Play: Padres ML – 1.5U
Bonus Total: Padres First Five Over 3.5 – 0.5U
Sweep Beaters: Phillies @ Cubs
The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Chicago Cubs in game three of the series this week, as the Phightins look to complete the sweep. The Phillies will be sending Taijuan Walker to the mound. Walker has performed better than expected thus far in his first season as a Philly with a 4.10 ERA across 16 starts and 83.1 innings. The majority of that success has come from his last seven starts. In those starts, he carries a 1.71 ERA across 42 innings with a WHIP of 0.98. Despite his recent success, he has pitched much worse on the road. In nine road starts, he carries a 5.76 ERA across 45.1 innings with a WHIP of 1.48. If you remove his last road start that came against the Oakland A’s, he has a 6.75 ERA across 37.1 innings. His last road start and his recent starts at home have skewed the numbers on this one.
Taking the mound for the Cubs will be Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks spent some time on the IL this season and only has six starts and 34.2 innings of work. He does have a 2.60 ERA on the year, though. Over his last three starts, he carries an ERA of 1.40 in 19.1 innings with a WHIP of 0.52. His starts have been split evenly between home and away, and the groundball pitcher has not pitched as well within the Friendly Confines. Through 14.1 innings, he carries a home ERA of 3.77 with a WHIP of 1.53. Most of the disparity in these numbers comes from facing much better competition at home than on the road. At home, he has faced the New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, and Baltimore Orioles. While on the road, he has faced the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, and Pittsburgh Pirates. Expect his home luck to turn around today.
The Play: Cubs ML – 1U
Bonus Total: Cubs First Five Over 2.5 – 0.5U
Four-Game Series Victory: Brewers @ Mets
The last of our baseball bets for the day takes us to Queens for the third time this week. The Milwaukee Brewers look to even the series against the New York Mets. On the mound for the Brewers will be Adrian Houser. Across nine outings for Houser this season he carries a 4.02 ERA over 40.1 innings with a 1.54 ERA. Another pitcher today that has made relief appearances, Houser’s last seven have been slightly better. In that time, he has a 3.69 ERA over 31.2 innings with a 1.42 WHIP. Houser has also pitched better on the road as shown by his 3.52 ERA over five appearances and 23 innings. He does still hold a 1.52 WHIP on the road, however, which does not bode well for the Brewers in our baseball bets.
The Mets counter with their ace, Max Scherzer. Mad Max, in his age-38 season, carries a 3.95 ERA across 13 starts and 70.2 innings, with 76 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. He has gotten back on track over his last seven, where he has a 3.35 ERA over 43 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. He has made a considerable amount more starts on the road than he has at home this season. However, in the four starts that he has made at home, he carries a 2.95 ERA across 21.1 innings with 22 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP. The Brewers as a team have the fourth most strikeouts in baseball. Not only will this game be the last of our baseball bets for the day, but we also have a pretty easy player prop to make.
The Play: Mets ML – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts
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