Big apples! PECOTA projections give Mets, Yankees best chance of winning World Series
According to the annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus, a Subway Series matchup might occur in the 2023 World Series.
PECOTA, or the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm developed by Baseball Prospectus, estimates player and team performance based on players' past performances for the upcoming season. Players' stats get taken into account based on how likely they are to repeat their performance or if luck inflated their numbers.
Both New York clubs hold the highest odds of winning the World Series this year.
The Yankees are projected to have a 97.9-64.1 record, the best in the American League. They have a 17.1% chance of winning the World Series, the highest percentage in baseball. PECOTA accounts for Wednesday's news that right-hander Frankie Montas will undergo shoulder surgery, which may cause him to miss the entire season.
Despite the loss, the Yankees' World Series odds weren't significantly affected; they had a 17.8% chance on Tuesday. Montas' transition from Oakland to the Bronx wasn't smooth, which explains why the percentage didn't change much. In eight starts with the Yankees, he posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.
The Yankees rotation has a strong case to be MLB's best since signing LHP Carlos Rodón in the offseason, and their PECOTA rank reflects that. An estimated 569 runs allowed are the fewest in baseball.
As for the Mets, they project to finish with a 95.8-66.2 record, second only to the Dodgers in the National League (96.1-65.9) and the third-best in baseball. However, the Dodgers have a 12.4% chance of winning the World Series compared to the Mets' 12.6%.
PECOTA believes the Mets should be baseball's top offense this season, which is impressive considering the team's failure to finalize a deal with shortstop Carlos Correa in the offseason. Their expected 787 runs scored narrowly edge the Dodgers' 782.
Pitchers Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt departed this offseason, but their replacements could be just as effective as PECOTA indicates.
The Mets added three-time AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, Japanese phenom Kodai Senga and left-hander José Quintana, who allowed the fewest home runs per nine innings last season. PECOTA rates the new-look rotation well. Their 646 projected runs allowed rank seventh in MLB.
Of course, the Yankees and Mets have faced each other in the Fall Classic once before, with the Yankees beating the Mets in five games in 2000. While projections don't guarantee another meeting, the Yankees' 13-year title drought and high-spending Mets owner Steve Cohen's commitment to bringing a championship to Queens would make for a thrilling rematch.
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