Blue Jays Pitchers & the New Outfield Dimensions

The Toronto Blue Jays are doing some pretty big things in their outfield. More specifically, they’re improving the fan experience by redesigning the spaces just beyond the walls. In doing so, they’re making some interesting changes to the walls themselves, changes that could see more home runs. Blue Jays Nation highlighted some hometown hitters that could benefit from the changes. While it is a well done examination, I wanted to look at the pitching side of that coin and look at which Jays’ pitchers, if any, we should be concerned about. Will they see an increase in home runs allowed?

For this exercise, I looked at the 2022 numbers that might speak to this issue: a) FB%- I wanted to see how often each pitcher gives up flyballs. Obviously, not all fly balls are the same and this metric doesn’t give any indication as to whether the event was a near home or not. b) HR/FB- I wanted to see how often those flyballs turned to home runs. c) K%- one of the best ways to avoid a flyball turning into a home run is to simply strike out the batter. With the increased emphasis on home runs (focusing on Launch Angle, Exit Velocity, etc) as a means of scoring runs, teams seem to have also put a greater emphasis on striking out batters. d) SwStr%- basically, I wanted to take a quick look at Toronto’s ability to get those swings and misses, which also seems to be of increasing importance.

Another factor not included, but likely to skew the conversation, is which field a pitcher tends to see the most flyballs. Since Rogers Centre is moving away from uniform walls, where a flyball is hit will make a difference. Spin rate, pitch offering and other metrics are all likely to impact this discussion, but in the interest of keeping it simple, I went with the 4 metrics listed above.

I also broke the pitching staff up into starters and relievers since they aren’t exactly alike. The size of their sample is not the same, to begin with. As well, a reliever giving up a home run in a close game in the 8th inning is much different than a starter giving one up in the 3rd. Context makes it logical to separate these two groups.

The Starters

Alek Manoah might be the most interesting of this group. His FB% is above the 2022 average at 41.90%, but his HR/FB rate is well below league average at 7.10%. His ability to miss bats is right around league average. Kevin Gausman is probably the guy who stands out the least in that his FB% and HR/FB numbers are both below league average while his K% and SwStr% are both comfortably above.

Jose Berrios, who is on the wrong side of both of the pairs of metrics, is of concern, but that was true without any of the outfield walls changing. He’ll need to bounce back in a number of ways in 2023. More concerning than Berrios is the 5th starter spot. Yusei Kikuchi saw flyballs at a league average rate in 2022, but they turned into homeruns at a rate more than double the league average. He’s still able to miss bats, so there is at least some hope there. Mitch White (SSS alert) saw a lower than average FB% and HR/FB%, but lower K% and SwStr%. This may not make fans feel better about that 5th spot.

The Relievers

The bullpen is actually more interesting than the starters since allowing a home run could mean more in their outings. On the positive side, closer, Jordan Romano gives up more flyballs than average, but limits the number of home runs at a rate that is just under half league average. Newly acquired Erik Swanson just might be the most interesting of the group in that his FB% is 10% higher than league average (47.2% !), but his HR/FB% is more than half the average. This is likely thanks, in part, to his well above average K% and SwStr%.

Of concern are Tim Mayza, whose HR/FB% is more than double the league average. His K% and SwStr% don’t exactly give enough confidence to ignore that HR/FB%. At first glance, one might be concerned with Yimi Garcia‘s 46% FB%, but he has been good at limiting the number of home runs. In fact, the only ones who saw a HR/FB% above league average are Mayza, Trevor Richards and Nate Pearson, whose numbers are based on his career totals.

Conclusion

While the alterations to the Rogers Centre wall could result in an increase of home runs for the Blue Jays, that is only one side of the coin. The club will also need to think about surrendering more home runs. The good news is that there really isn’t any pitcher on the roster that gives us reason to worry.

Sure, there are concerns with the likes of Kikuchi, White, Mayza and maybe Richards, but these guys already came with some level of concern anyway. That is not to say they’re terrible pitchers. But, if the team were looking for bullpen upgrades, these guys represent the bar over which the replacement would have to leap. But, as is, this is a pitching staff that could weather changes to the walls.