This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on Fangraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Sometimes it can be difficult to follow in the footsteps of a future Hall of Famer, but Christian Walker has taken on that challenge and thrived. Originally a waiver wire pickup that found his way into the everyday first base job in 2019. He's been a rock on both on and off the field for the D-backs, with 69 home runs and 197 RBI batting in the clean-up spot. He's coming off a second straight season of30 home runs, 90 RBI, and a Gold Glove Award at first base. He'll be in the last year of control, earning $10.9 million before hitting free agency after his Age 33 season.
The Projection
Once again, Walker projects to be a middle of the order bat with an ISO above .200. However the projections expect his power to decline in his Age 33 season, with fewer than 30 home runs. His strikeout and walk rates are both expected to increase by about 1%, as he's been around 19% and 9% respectively the past two seasons. The drop-off in power combined with a continued decline defensively will eat into his WAR total, dropping from just under 4.0 in 2023 to 2.5 in 2024. That continues a slow and managed decline from his peak year of 2022.
Why Walker Might Outperform the Projection
Walker has a strong work ethic, which could be enough to manage the decline better at the plate and in the field. It will come down to quality of contact, especially on air contact as to whether or not he can put up a third consecutive season of 30 home runs, 90 RBI, and a Gold Glove. Based on the situation at first base, Walker may continue to outperform the counting stats based on playing time.
Additionally the projections also include an injury-marred 2021 season in the mix, but since then Walker has tirelessly worked to keep himself healthy and productive. The D-backs have also added more bats to their lineup, with Eugenio Suarez joining the middle of the order and the team still seeking an additional bat to round out their lineup. There will be less pressure on Walker to be the key run producer , which could result in him being more productive in run scoring situations.
Why Walker Might Underperform the Projection
Based on batted ball metrics, Walker is showing some signs of decline. Every batted ball metric showed considerable decline in the percentiles from 2022 to 2023, especially in the hard-hit rate (72nd to 47th). A power hitter that is making less hard contact is a sign of a player in decline, which also comes in line with a small drop-off in his defensive value. Typically a decline is much more sharp for a player in their 30s and Walker could be dangerously close to the cliff. However given his work ethic as a player, it's more likely that his decline will be more gradual.
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